Most Influential Books / Recommended Reading List

One other insight was that money management (deciding how much dollars to buy each stock or how much to bet at one time on one thing) is much more important than (a) stock selection (b) entry price (c) sell rules. In other words, what we need from the ranking system is a small but very reliable statistical edge.

Even though portfolio123 makes money management very easy, it makes the implementation easy, not the design. For example, 3 stock systems and 4 stock systems can give huge returns for short periods but will decay sooner than later or they swing too much drawdowns that we stop following them.

Money management includes several other things, such as starting capital. For instance, a sim, which averages 70% annual returns when started with 100,000 portfolio, drops to 40% when started with a 10000 portfolio. Why? In the first year or two, commissions steal away most of the returns! In fact, if you start with $2000, this sim may never see the light of the day! Power of compounding working against us!

This actually led me to experiment for the first time with a fixed amount investment. For instance, given a 20000 dollars capital instead of specifying 5 stock sim (by choosing percentage 20%), choose fixed amount and specify $5000. First year the sim buys 4 stocks and as it makes more and more money, in five years, it makes enough money to buy 30 stocks :slight_smile: spreading the risk over many stocks, limiting drawdowns.

Bottomline: While we must look for the holy grail ranking system (which means that its top rankers immediately turn profitable and grow the fastest in a short time and top rankers never ever lose money), there might not be such a measuring stick that works forever.

Instead, we might want to equally strive for a frictionless or lossless money managing strategy (which is deciding how many stocks for what amount and how to cut losses and how to let profits run and when to cut profits short) - as good as possible so that even with a suboptimal ranking system (as measured by % winners), the net results are fairly good and more importantly very very consistent. In order to do this a lot of experimentation has to go into % allocation, number of stocks in the portfolio and the sell rules.

What I am trying to emphasize is that this money management should be independent of the ranking, but rather, adjust itself to the results of the sim. For instance, a sim could watch its losers and winners over time and adjust its stop losses dynamically. It can see how much of its return came from the top 5 winners and adjust profit taking to ensure it does not get overheated. Over-optimization and curve-fitting is bad, but who said adjusting to live markets is bad? There goes my biggie feature request to Marco and team. It could be a feature where stops, position sizes, cash reserve (money allocation and sell rules) are all specified in terms of performance parameters measured over the last 50 trades, so the sim and the portfolio use those variables instead of hard numbers. :slight_smile:

I am sure in the vast world of trading, people would have experimented with such ideas.

Ravi

Ravi,

That was one of the best posts I’ve seen on this board. It should go in the knowledge base. Good work, my friend.

Brian

Thank you. I have benefited a lot more from this forum and hope to give at least as much as I learn.

I have gone back and re-edited my posts to clarify thoughts and add some more ideas.
Ravi

Thanks to Ravi and others for keeping this thread going, which I started over a year ago. Ravi, I particularly appreciated the references and pointers that are specific to systems development.

Coming off of my worst month in a long time (on the heels of a great 1.5 years – so don’t worry), I am even more convinced than ever that money management, position sizing and risk management are my personal holy grail. For those that feel similarly or even wonder if they need to look at these things more closely, I highly recommend Trading Risk by Kenneth Grant.

Perhaps more importantly, I have started keeping track of what I have read in the past two years or so in a more methodical fashion and have come up with the list below. These book recommendations are books I have recently read and are loosely grouped into categories, with similarities in each group. Each book has two ratings – based on a 10 point scale – my (highly subjective) assessment of value for a beginning trader followed by my assessment for an experienced trader.

A relative newbie should probably proceed from the top group down as far as they can continue to get value, but, personally I’d make the top 11 required reading at the outset and suggest that among the others, you don’t wait too long to read Mamis, Bulkowski and Grant, in particular.

Also, expect to reread many of these books as your knowledge base grows and you are able to pull different nuggets out of them.

Finally, you will find some bias here as it relates to my being an active trader (in addition to a LT investor) who focuses largely on position trading and has been using more T&A over the past few years.

Introduction and Context
Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders (Jack Schwager) – 10/8
The New Market Wizards: Conversations with America’s Top Traders (Jack Schwager) – 10/7
Stock Market Wizards: Interviews with America’s Top Stock Traders (Jack Schwager) – 10/7

Anecdotal / Historical

How I Made 2,000,000 in the Stock Market (Nicholas Darvas) – 9/5
Reminiscences of a Stock Market Operator (Edwin Lefevre) – 9/9

High Level, How To: The Short List
Fooled By Randomness (Nassim Taleb) – 9/8
Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom (Van Tharp) – 9/9
Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications (John Murphy) – 9/6
Japanese Candlestick Charting (Steve Nison) – 8/8
The Successful Investor: What 80 Million People Need to Know to Invest Profitably and Avoid Big Losses (William O’Neil) – 8/6
High Probability Trading (Marcel Link) – 9/9

High Level, How To: The Second Tier
Trader Vic–Methods of a Wall Street Master (Victor Sperandeo) – 8/8
How I Trade for a Living (Gary Smith) – 7/6
Trend Following: How Great Traders Make Millions in Up or Down Markets (Michael Covel) – 6/5
The Education of a Speculator (Victor Niederhoffer) – 7/7
Practical Speculation (Victor Niederhoffer) – 6/6

Detailed Individual Approaches

Fire Your Stock Analyst: Analyzing Stocks On Your Own (Harry Domash) – 8/5 …OR…
…Screening the Market (Marc Gerstein) – 8/5
How to Take Money from Wall Street: Learn to Profit in Bull and Bear Markets (Tony Oz) – 8/7
Trade Like a Hedge Fund: 20 Successful Uncorrelated Strategies & Techniques to Winning Profits (James Altucher) – 7/5
The Logical Trader (Mark Fisher) – 7/7

Too Often Overlooked: Managing Exiting Positions
When to Sell (Justin Mamis) – 9/9
It’s When You Sell That Counts (Donald Cassidy) – 8/8

Risk Control and Money Management
Trading Risk: Enhanced Profitability through Risk Control (Kenneth Grant) – 8/9

Value Investing Bible
The Intelligent Investor (Benjamin Graham) – 8/8

Thought Starters
The (Mis)Behavior of Markets (Benoit Mandelbrot) – 7/7
Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation (Edward Chancellor) – 7/7
The Alchemy of Finance (George Soros) – 6/7

Reference and Miscellaneous
Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns (Thomas Bulkowski) – 7/8
Stock Trader’s Almanac 2006 (Yale & Jeffrey Hirsch) – 7/7
Choices, Values, and Frames (Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky) – 9/9
Fortune’s Formula (William Poundstone) – 7/7
The Vital Few vs. The Trivial Many (George Muzea) – 7/6

Options

McMillan on Options (Lawrence McMillan) – 7/8
Option Volatility & Pricing: Advanced Trading Strategies and Techniques (Sheldon Natenberg) – 5/9

Of Marginal Value…
A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market (John Paulos) – 5/3
The Master Swing Trader: Tools and Techniques to Profit from Outstanding Short-Term Trading Opportunities (Alan Farley) – 4/5
Swing Trading (Jon Markham) – 5/4

Wow! Outstanding list, thank you!

Brian, I agree. Unfortunately, Ravi’s post is buried in a discussion of best books, where it may be difficult for people to stumble across.

A year ago I suggested that the forum software should allow members to recommend posts, as is done on many other discussion boards. Then users could sort a listing of posts by number of recommendations. The cream would rise to the top without the need for Marco’s intervention. See this feature request

Way of the Turtle: The Secret Methods that Turned Ordinary People into Legendary Traders

http://www.amazon.com/Way-Turtle-Methods-Ordinary-Legendary/dp/007148664X

Interesting book by and about Curtis Faith, apparently one of the more successful of the Turtles. Forward by Van Tharp.

The trading system the Turtles were taught was trend following (eg of indexes and commodities and currencies, …) but I found it also helpful for thinking about P123 due to discussion about adjustable position sizing, importance of following system even for massive drawdowns, diversification, and Average True Range

It is my understanding that the trend following Turtle system never worked on stock index futures.

Steve

Just One Thing - Twelve of the World’s Best Investors Real the ONE Strategy You Can’t Overlook, by John Mauldin, editor

http://www.amazon.com/Just-One-Thing-Investors-Strategy/dp/0471738735

Each chapter is written by an experienced investor, many with 30+ hard-won years of experience. Much of the writing is heart-felt - they share what is most dear to them. I suspect that many P123 users would also be able to write equally powerful chapters.

I was struck by Dennis Gartman’s contributions. For him personally, his advice was "Never, every under any circumstance, should one add to a losing position … not EVER! " He compared that rule to the Real Estate Rule of "Location, Location, Location and felt it underlies survivability in the investment business long-term.

This is important for instance to the real-life question of what is best approach to scale in more real money into P123 ports. P123 SIMS currently must take postion of being either neutral on this matter or optionally simulate buying more of stocks that have fallen at Rebalance, but are still of sufficient rank. While I realize such a test would not include the important strengths of ranking that P123 offers, I am wondering if anyone is aware of academic studies or has ever backtested elsewhere to compare the approaches: (1) Add more to winning position, (2) Add more to losing position eg “Buy on Dip” and, (3) Stick with position until replace with new stock (P123 approach)

Thank you.

It is my understanding that the trend following Turtle system never worked on stock index futures.

Right, actually a lot of traders who tried to make the move from commodities to stocks complained that the movement of stock prices is highly random, and doesn’t trend very much.

I read a book “how markets really work” recently with some data in it that shows counter trend trading is a much better idea, at least in the short term.

For a full treatment of the subject, you may want to download "A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation "

ie Long term trendfollowing on stock indexes works, but probably not in the manner you would expect.

Hi, Budonk. The link in your last post isn’t working. Truncated at http.

Here is the correct link for A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation

FWIW, the author, Mebane Faber, also has an excellent blog: World Beta

“Your Next Great Stock” by Jack Hough who writes Smartmoney stock screen column. This is an introductory book to screening and is very nice complement to AAII in terms of providing perspective and helping to learn new strategies and test them out here at P123.

Kurt

Came across this daily free Small Cap news reader.
Which may be of interest to some in this community.

Check out the new book “Quantitative strategies for achieving alpha”. I just got the book today and I’ve only skimmed though it, but it looks like a great book for the P123 crowd. The author covers lots of factors and combinations of factors. He gives the returns by quintile for the universe and also by sector. He used the Compustat PIT database so the backtest results go back to the early 90s.

Dan:

Thanks for the tip. A book like this is just what I want to see - it will partly fill the 1990s gap in P123’s data history. I just ordered a copy from Amazon.

Have a great new year.

Brian

Good tip, Dan. Unfortunately, I bought the book on my Kindle, but the tables are all screwed up in that format, So I guess it’s the treeware version for me.

Happy New Year, all.

Here are some ofmy favorite books on investing. Although most of these books are not pure quant, I found them great reads. I have not put them in any order, although I must say I found Wanger’s book both interesting and useful.

  1. A Zebra In Lion Country - Ralph Wanger

  2. The New Money Masters - JohnTrain

3.Candlesticks Explained - Martin Pring

4.Innumeracy - Mathamatical Illiteracy And Its Consequences

  • John Allen Paulos

5.How To Make Money In Stocks - William J. O’Neil

  1. Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator - Edwin Lefevre

7.John Neff On Investing - John Neff

I found these books had a lot of good insights.

Wayne