Portfolio123+Wealth-Lab

Yuval makes a solid point about look-ahead and selection bias.

A similar concern applies when creating a universe of the “best-performing” 36 stocks based on hindsight. Running a backtest on that list risks proving something we already know, rather than testing a real strategy.

A better approach would be to define the universe dynamically using point-in-time data—e.g., FOrder("MktCap") <= 36—so you’re selecting stocks based on what could have been known at the time (as Yuval has pointed out in a similar context above).

@geov has recently emphasized this as well.

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