CNY represent “the year ahead”. It is falling now because more & more companies are reporting Q4, which results in 1/4 of NextY being dropped off, and more & more CNY being the same as CurrY. Since NextY is usually bigger than CurrY , during the first few month of the year when most companies fiscal year ends, CNY moves towards Curry resulting in a decline. A real decline, not artificial.
Marco, I know you have gotten beaten up about this. But I wanted to say thank you for being open on your inputs and rational on this topic. It made me rethink a timing strategy I have that was using CY and I have redone it completely using CNY. My overall strategy got better because of this re-think.
Since the Jan and Feb values of SPEPCY are unreliable, one should not use those values in a model, especially when there is a down-market present. I got good results with SPEPCY in timer models when restricting the model from going long during the period Jan-Feb while down-markets exist, indicated by sma(50,0,#bench) < sma(220,0,#bench).
I think I understand the reason behind SPEPSCNY, but when I tried to calculate it using the formula:
SetVar(@q1num, @EPSAdj * UnivSum(“1”, “0.75*(CurFYEPSMean * SharesQ) + 0.25*(NextFYEPSMean * SharesQ)”))
It is different from series SPEPSCNY, and SPEPSCNY data seems to be wrong.
Just hope SPEPSCNY calculation won’t get revised later after people build strategies around it.
Great idea. Thanks.
Hengfu, please see my https://www.portfolio12.com/mvnforum/viewthread_thread,9514_lastpage,yes#lastpost
And, yes, there will be a slight revision to #SPEPSCNY but it should not be significant as I explained in the post.
Thanks