This is interesting.
A retrospective memo written in 2028.
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Finally people are starting to take AI seriously as a business risk this year. Last year people were questioning its utility. This year people are starting to get wary. There are many ways this could unfold, but most bearish forecasts forget that new industries and new discoveries are also around the corner if AI delivers.
Generally the bulk of the damage will be done to countries that do not or cannot invest in AI or new industries as their white collar labor needs diminish without new industries on the way in the near future. In the US and China one can argue the gains from “absorbing” a percentage of foreign jobs will boost or ameliorate things (export of AI tools/services) but many emerging markets might have an initial struggle period sans commodities
I don't know if I've ever seen a Substack post have so much impact on one day's trades. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-23/software-payments-shares-tumble-after-citrini-post-on-ai-risks?srnd=homepage-americas
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Counter to the viral Citrini substack by Citadel
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There's a very good takedown here too: Good Things Are Good - by Josh Barro - Very Serious
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