Interesting to use all those stocks in an in-list and selecting the 10 highest ranked using Greenblatt ranking system. Beats all individual ports with a 14.4% return over the last 3 months. Let’s see how this works over the next 3 months.
Congratulations are due to Derek (Burd4), who has pretty much dominated this contest from the beginning. I don’t know how he picked his stocks, which were almost all microcaps, but my guess is that he paid attention to the standard sentiment and size indicators, TTM growth in earnings and/or free cash flow, price momentum, free cash flow to enterprise value (or something similar), and maybe the free cash flow to assets ratio.
Ty for the kind words. Simple buy rules
indWeight < 15
MktCap>=20 and MktCap < 350
AvgDailyTot(60) >( 50 * 1000) #AnalystsNextFY > 0
Close(0) >1
Float > 2
Ranking system mostly value, 25% technical. I have to say excellent job with your guess. The size effect tends to outperform but is hard to trade in real life. I back tested this system and it averaged 30% yr with 1 year rebalance.
We have learned a lot in 2016 & 2017 on stock picking with help of p123 and community contest.
If we able to pick good liquid stocks manually for 1 year holding, it will build confident on our model design and our investments with money.
I start to stalking/screening for 2018 best 20 stocks competition with minimum avg 1 million volume.
believe, we need to spend 2 to 3 weeks hard work to pick the stocks; Christmas holiday and New Year time everyone busy with family and vacation.
So, I suggests to start screening now itself for the 2018 top 20 picks competition.
I also suggest to keep reasonable liquidity as everyone in p123 will get benefit from your hard work and successful ideas for 2018.
Also, spend time with our last year picks and analyze winners and losers; there is some lessons with winners to keep, there will be more lessons from loosers; how to avoid for next 12 months.
As P123 community, we will learn and grow successfully in positive direction on everyone contribution and hard work.
Imagine as we are money manager with 1 million dollar, now work with required steps and how to protect and grow our life time wealth for next year 2018. so, we will think more and more and will come-up with best 20 stocks,
There is no undo command in investments.
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P123 Staff, Please, help
BGB and NXPI symbols are missing at P123 from Jan 1 2017, Any help how to fix.
In Finviz tracking it is presents.
I very much would like to keep the same rules as for last year. I invest only in low-volume stocks, you invest only in high-volume stocks. There’s room for both of us. So let’s keep the same rules: minimum price $1.00, minimum $50,000 ADT(60), minimum float 2 million. When you’re holding a stock for a whole year, slippage and transaction costs aren’t really problematic.
Most of our picks are based on fundamentals; Believe, MktCap under 50 Million, the fundamental data are late to publish and very few followers.
So, I suggest to avoid low market cap this year.
My model have 1 stock with very low liquidity.
I also, suggest keep the AvgVol(100) > 100K for this year.
Kumar: 32.23%. I’m using only 19 of Kumar’s stock picks because one was a closed-end fund and is therefore not in the all-fundamentals universe. Including that fund (BGB) would have lowered Kumar’s returns by about 1%, so he still would have won.
tomanyi (list 1): 26.69%
sglinski: 24.06%
brianj999: 22.91%
Eddy Elfenbein (25 picks): 20.88%
Burd4: 20.17%
judgetrade: 17.18%
Yuval Taylor: 15.45%
PortfolioPerfection: 13.84%
tomanyi (list 3): 12.02%
mmasand: 10.57%
SevenSisters: 3.24%
Marc Gerstein: 3.13%
azinvesting: 2.04%
Congratulations are due to Kumar!
Interestingly, only four out of fourteen lists were able to beat the S&P 500.
Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. – JESSE LIVERMORE
Jesse was a legendary trader in his lifetime. His experiences taught him that even though he was able to made good money trading, he also lost good amounts of money by over-trading. After decades of trading & investing, he offered the above advice, showing that patience can be rare, but also patience can be more rewarding if you know you are correct about a certain set up and patiently wait for it to unfold.
The 1 year holding contest cultivating patience within me,
as i am in full-time IT job and having young family with 2 kids. I thought i am missing daily trading edge or watching market daily edge for my success.
In 2017, my yearly pick returns 1.5X gain of bench mark SP500, holding largecap 20 companies liquid stocks; 90% of the picks had positive gain.
Now, I become comfortable with my stock pick for 3 to 4 months holdings; it is my comfort zone.
My 2018 resolution ignore the market daily and weekly noise, just focus on current holdings. plan your trade then trade your plan.
weekly rebalance is more than enough; i prefer quarterly rebalance for profit taking, weekly rebalance for managing losses.
Expecting other participant’s insight, experience and review in 2017 contest; what all are the lessons learned by other participants.
What areas they will be working to improve in 2018.
It is a good thing, i have more room for improvement in 2018,
Thanks
Kumar
Thank you for the compliment, Nicoletta. I wish my real-money results (up 4.4% YTD) were as pretty as my buy-and-hold simulation (14.7% YTD). Maybe there’s a lesson to be learned here. Maybe buy-and-hold does better in down markets? I invested in a lot of the same stocks, but not the biggest winner here (ABCD), and I sold a portion of some of the winners in order to invest in others and therefore missed some nice price jumps and concomitant compounding.
On the other hand, in 2017, my real-money results were a whole lot better than my buy-and-hold simulation (57.9% vs 15.4%) . . .
Lessons Learned: one of the habit of individual/novice investor is abandoning the success formula and perform research all the time by ignoring past work, start the new work from scratch and loosing the sight/knowledge gained over the years.
P123 is here to replicate our success without emotion. believe this stock pick competition will serve the same purpose if i work on same idea source, theme, screening criteria, routine, discipline and organisation to pick stocks every year. i will progress towards financial freedom sooner than later.
my picks in 2017 are based on largecap growth stocks, 90% of them household name companies, it returns +0.84 pct in 2018.
my picks in 2018 are both portfolios are value based and was in expectation, 2017 was belongs to growth, i thought 2018 may be belongs to value.
I need to INVEST MY TIME productively in what is working(stress-less) and I also need to AVOID MY TIME on what will work expectation (stressful).