Add crypto universes for backtesting. Capabilities will be similar to ETFs with technical factors and functions with EOD data. This project is more costly since it will involve purchasing additional data with uncertain ROI.
By voting you agree to be billed the amount pledged if we decide to do this project. You can retract your pledge anytime before the project kicks off.
Dear all,
I have pledged $500 for the project and just want to point out that it is now possible to perform backtesting on Bitcoin and Ethereum using the Canadian ETFS (ticker("btcc.b,ethh") from the issuer Purpose with 3 years of history.
Regards
James
Marco,
Is it possible to include the fundamental data that Glassnode also provides in this project in addtional to just price data.
WIth more data point, this should increase the chance we beat the crypto market and also pledging more support.
Regards
James
They have an enterprise plan with redistribution rights, but likely very expensive. Also seems geared for intraday, so it's not plug and play data for us. In other words a massive project on par with adding Asia. Perhaps a 200k investment. And we are not familiar with any of those data-points.
What products do they offer? Why not just use their tools?
Marco,
My wife currently has a one year T-3 enterprise subscription which has been negotiated by Calvin for his group with Glassnode (around 30 ppl) and cost about USD 600 a year each. Calvin use Glassnode and a number of other providers for non-price fundmental data linked with API for his Python setup.
Most of Glassnode existng tools are basic graphing tools. They made most of their money selling data, not like Portfolio123 offering analytical tools.
Regards
James
Dear all,
Another great day for Calvin Tsai as Bitcoin breaks $70,000 (again).
Pls see the screenshots below.
Also attached is a table from a research paper. This table shows that trading crypto with momentum is more than 5X more profitable for Daily Long vs S&P 500.
In addtion,Daily Short, 1H Long, 1H Short are also profitable for cryptos trading with momentum.
For S&P 500, all other scenarios trading with momentum (i.e. Daily Short, 1H Long, 1H Short, 5 min Long, 5 min Short) end up losing money after fees(0.2%).
Regards
James
Edit : Here is the research paper
Dynamic time series momentum of cryptocurrencies.pdf (948.5 KB)
P123 should take a stand against providing crypto data even if a crypto billionaire comes and asks for it. It's rat poison. Providing it diminishes the stature of P123.
I still don't understand the hatred against cryptos in general. It is just a new asset class for investment/speculation But I guess everyone is entitled to their views.
Accoding to this link, 40% of Americans now owns cryptos.
About 50% of Americans also vote for Trump which is why a meme stock like $DJT is surging more than 45% right now on its first day of trading with a market cap of more than $5 billion now and less than $5 million in revenue last year.
Regards
James
40% of American adults now own crypto, up from 30% in 2023. This could be as many as 93 million people.
Crypto data is simple - it's just price data because it has no intrinsic value. The price of these "assets" is widely available. There is no need for P123 to devote effort to providing this data even if they are paid to do so - it will be unpaid effort when 99% of "crypto" goes to 0 and the data has to be removed. I think it will be an embarrassment looking back when many financial websites take down all the crypto quotes from their front page. Most won't remember who chased the fad and who didn't, but that's why I say it's a stand. You either stand for something or you provide data on trash just because it exists.
Crypto data is not just about price. There are thousands of other data points which are available that many sophiscated market palyers are currently using to gain an edge.
Here is the list from Glassnode. (It is upto Marco to decide whether to provide them in P123 if the project eventually happens).
It is just like saying stock data is simple and just about price without understanding the dynamics.
Regards
James
Crypto is here to stay, it is already too big to be ignored. It is much bigger than the US stock market already.
Yes, there is extreme volatility sometimes.
But institutions have only just started to invest in Crypto. The big boys are beginning to invest.
And yes, there are many statistics available around crypto investing.
Glassnode has many and for free. As the market is growing rapidly, volatility will decrease over time.
Also real world use cases are being developed rapidly.
It is definitely not for the faint of heart though.
My crypto portfolio has doubled in 6 months.
I think investing a small portion of your capital in crypto can be a good strategy.
Such as?
And "real world" means something actually useful. Something better than existing use case. A trading website, exchange, creative derivatives, financial mumbo jumbo, are not use cases. They are just shenanigans to hide the fact that it's a ponzi scheme since nothing actually useful, or better, in the real world exists.
Marco,
To be fair, I don't think the tradtional financial firms (TradFi) listed below like Fidelity, Blackrock, Franklin Templeton and Invesco still think crypto is some kind of wild west and a ponzi scheme.(as compare to 3-5 years ago.)
They are all got approval from SEC and are in Bticoin ETFs right now. Fidelity just files to SEC for an Ethereum ETF yesterday. (pls see article below)
• BlackRock
• Fidelity
• Invesco Galaxy
• VanEck
• Bitwise
• Franklin
• Valkyrie
• Hashdex
• Ark Invest
• Grayscale
• WisdomTree
The financial services giant pushed forward with its filing.
Contributing Editor
Mar 28, 2024
Reviewed by: etf.com Staff
Edited by: Kent Thune
Financial services giant Fidelity Investments has pressed forward with its plans to offer an ETF based primarily on the price of ether, the token of the Ethereum blockchain, filing a registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday.
Fidelity said in the S-1 filing that its Ethereum Fund would “seek to track the performance of ether,” and trade on the Cboe BZX Exchange. Fidelity did not mention the proposed fund’s ticker or fee. The fund will hold ether and value its shares based on a Fidelity index based on price feeds from various spot markets, Fidelity said in the filing.
Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, was recently trading just below $3,600, up 2% over the past 24 hours. It has risen more than 55% this year. Bitcoin, the no. 1 cryptocurrency, was recently trading over $71,000, up more than 60% year-to-date.
Interest in cryptocurrency investments has skyrocketed this year following the SEC’s early January approval of 10 spot bitcoin ETFs, which track bitcoin’s price. Those new products have generated nearly $12 billion in net flows and hold over $57 billion in assets under management.
In spite of the widespread embrace of bitcoin ETFs, spot Ethereum ETFs have met resistance and investor appetite for them appears cool. Earlier this month, the SEC delayed making a decision on the spot Ethereum applications from Fidelity and BlackRock Inc., and started comments periods for the proposed products. Investors can currently purchase shares in Ethereum futures ETFs, which the SEC greenlit in October.
The agency requested public input on whether the arguments favoring spot bitcoin ETF approval would apply to the spot Ethereum ETFs, how they might differ from futures ether funds currently available.
Bitwise Asset Management, Ark Invest, and Franklin Templeton are also seeking to create spot Ethereum ETFs.
The SEC delay earlier this month was largely expected by analysts, who foresee May as the date to watch for the regulator to make a final decision on the funds.
“The only date that matters for spot ethereum ETFs at this time is May 23,” Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart wrote on Twitter/X after Invesco’s filing was punted in early February. May 23 is the final deadline for VanEck's spot ether fund.
https://www.etf.com/sections/news/fidelity-ethereum-etf-sec-application
Practical use cases are being developed and exist as of today. They are still not wide spread. The industry is new but growing rapidly.
Here you can see a few of them:
Tokenization of big assets (like a 100 million building or a piece of modern art with the same price) is gaining popularity.
You cannot own it as an average guy. But it can be tokenized and thus you can be owner of a fraction of the building and get some rent income, if you wish to own part of a big building. All this can be done much cheaper and easier than traditional methods.
There ARE real world use cases and a lot more will be coming.
There are some exciting use cases. However, those use cases can be handled with de novo coins using the same specification. The truth is there would be no interest or excitement about these trading sardines, or even the use cases, if people had not become wildly rich speculating on how big the "value" could become by convincing hapless "investors" to bid. My two cents - P123 should track the "crypto" ETFs. That's it. There are many "crypto" sites for the believers. P123's efforts (which are clearly supply constrained judging by these feature sponsorships) should focus on clean apples to apples point in time global company data, great ways to visualize features, engineer features and backtest/validate them for significance. Contrary to the frenzy of new "data" about "crypto", precious few people are doing the former well. That task is large enough.
Marco,
Maybe you are different than I am but as a business owner credit card fees make me angry. I could give my employees a considerable raise without that.
That does not mean bitcoins fees are necessarily cheaper.
I researched this a little and it seems exchange fees account for most of the cost of doing a transaction with Bitcoin.
The key word in the above pragraph is "little" as in "I researched this a little." So I could be wrong. But if Bitcoin were ever a more stable currency (less volatile) and more accepted (hold it in an account without having to exchange it so often) it has the potential to be less expensive for transactions, For some medium to large transactions it is already cheaper, my research suggests.
1.5% to 3% of the total transaction for credit cards while a $1 to $10 flat fee for Bitcoin (according to my research).. Exchange rates added to that as I stipulated above.
So seriously the bank is about to get $30 to $60 dollars from me when I renew my P123 membership? Could be $1 to $10 if Bitcoin were more accepted. Adds up. Nice vacation each year if I do the math on the number of P123 members.
Jim
And just think... P123 revenue in USD could be up 400% next year (nice bump), or down 75% (employees can't pay their rent). Not an interesting proposition for a biz owner.
Crypto and Bitcoin are NOT the same thing. Some incarnations of Crypto will pan out for sure and be really good. Bitcoin is the poison. It's based on an energy wasting silly algorithm, with even sillier rules like halving, and an artificial 21M limit to create frenzy. And boy you wait. It's the ultimate tulip scheme, and quite dangerous.
Mixing Bitcoin with all the Crypto use cases is just FUD. And you bet TradFi (aka "wealth transfer business") will back them. But they will not be left holding the bag, they make money from fees. Has everyone forgotten mortgage backed securities? It's the same people making a living making nothing.
So how does Bitcoin fare with legit Crypto use cases ? Let's break it down.
decentralized
Means you will lose real money either by a con, ransomware, or any myriad of technical issues (there is a hard-drive in a landfill with 8,000 bitcoins worth 1/2 billion dollars)
store of value
just a mirage from FOMO and some silly made up limit of 21M coins
medium of exchange
cross-border payments
remittances and money transfers
online shopping and e-commerce
micropayments and tipping
NEVER because of FOMO; everybody is just holding. Plus add to that IRS headaches, money laundering regs, and who knows what international regs. It is not a currency, and never will be one.
for privacy and anonymity
gaming and virtual economies
for fundraising and Initial Coin Offerings
Whatever
OK, what's left? You think the world will implode in debt, inflation run wild, the dollar will disintegrate. Buy gold. Gold is much better. It's real. You actually have to punch someone in the face to steal it rather than clicking on a mouse. It's got just enough production to keep the wheels greased. And has some real world applications.
Cheers.
PS can't wait to sell my bitcoins to someone else when it hits 90K 
So I don't invest in Bitcoin or crypto. I have no opinion as to whether it would be good for P123. I probably would NOT use it to be honest.
So just to learn, there is a good crypto? What makes it better than Bitcoin (no mining for one, I get)? Ideally, should a crypto use blockchain? Is blockchain a good way to keep track of transactions? I really am not sure of the alternatives and know (or think) blockchain has some problems so I am just asking.
And as far a credit cards, is there a more efficient way to do that such as blockchain, crypto or another solution? I think getting 1.5% to 3.0% for every transaction is seriously messed up if there is a better way.
Maybe I could give that 3% in state taxes for Medicaid instead? Money for charging stations for EVs instead of sending 3 cents for every dollar going to the banks.
While not a tax per se, it is regressive added on to food purchases, medical expenses affecting the poor most.
Blockchain (and other possible solutions) may deserve a separate serious discussion, I think.
We know the banks are making pure profit when some cards will share that profit as an inducement for customers to use their cards. Here is a "2% money-back on all purchases" card: Wells Fargo Active Cash® Card.
That is not free cash out of thin air. The charge must be greater than 2% as there must be some profit for the bank too. And the merchant had to increase his price in the exchange between itself and the customer—with any real profit in the exchange going to the bank.
There are tangible benefit to credit cards as it would get old carrying a wad of $100 bills to buy groceries and get through the week. A $1,000 dollar bill would not be a bad idea. Personally, I would not mind some eventual competition to the banks as far as transactions costs. Not sure crypto works at the grocery store yet,.
Jim
Jim,
Most US/international investors put their trust on products/services that are regulated by SEC including retail products like ETFs and products for professional investor like hedge funds.
Most cryptos are now regulated and by SEC/CFTC and they are cracking down on illegal behaviours and I personally don't think they allow ponzi schemes.
By the way, is Portfolio123 regulated by the SEC? (through the linkage with brokers). I know all US based hedge funds and hedge fund managers are regulated and scrutinised.
I need to send a few messages and find out more.
Regards
James
