[quote]
“if model OOS is somewhat inconsistent with in-sample during more or less consistent environment than system most probably is over-optimized.”
Kumar - the point is that in-sample is not performance and it should not be displayed as such. It is a period of optimization. …
[/quote] Steve, in-sample IS performance and absolutely should be displayed! It is performance of period of optimization and have it’s value not only for designer.
[quote]
… How a model is optimized is up to the designer and no one should be presume how it is done or how representative it is of OOS performance. …
[/quote] I do strongly believe your customers will disagree with such a statement.
[quote]
… I could argue that SZ’s SZS Large Cap S&P Defensive II: Focused Conservative Allocation is not consistent with in-sample data. It is performing well beyond what is suggested by in-sample data. …
[/quote]Correct. [quote]
… I guess that this model should be avoided right? After all it is inconsistent. It is designed around the healthcare sector and intermediate bonds, bubble city. …
[/quote]Absolutely correct until investor do clearly understand what was driven out-performance and risk connected. Just like Cherrypicking the Blue Chips - Standard, Buffett and Undervalued Blue Chip Stocks due to not including market timer into in-sample performance and Keating’s Ultra Defensive Portfolio build upon TLT. All out-performing by more than 40%. [quote]
… Is that fair? …
[/quote]You asking investor?
[quote]
… “how do you expect to market your customers without in-sample and <3 years OOS presentation?”
Quite frankly, I would rather wait three years rather than see customers come and leave because they lost their money. …
[/quote] Good answer. Am I, investor, interested in just 3 years OOS? Absolutely NO. Know what will be next? I will ask for 10 years OOS and then I will say it is past and it still not predicting the future, so I probably will no buy in. Are you ready to wait? See Steve, people always find reason if they want/need to. And this is not a joke!
[quote]
… “Most of those companies sells crap”
I would be hard-pressed to say that advanced Get or Stockopedia are crap. …
[/quote]I said “most”, I don’t know what those companies sell but I came out of production, costs and sales, so I strongly believe in what I have said.
[quote]
… “like Georg, see the reason and do marketing himself with 20% of total of all the P123 designers income.”
Georg was doing his stuff long before he came to P123 and brought investors with him. …
[/quote]??? So what? They don’t need signup streamline? So it is possible? Isn’t it you, Steve, who was trading for decades previously? Isn’t it what Marc Gerstein constantly asking designers for? I have come to P123 through the Georg, but I am not his investor and do not think his imarketsignals.com is strong and expensive ($ wise) marketing tool.
[quote]
… “I think P123 is very open community and signup process is a peanuts comparing to what efforts investor should make to get into model investing.”
Its a pretty safe bet to say that less than 1% of investors that come to P123 stay longer than their free trial. Less than 5% return after signing up for a free trial. … Steve
[/quote]Nevertheless this is not a stats, so what? What is different from the market? Steve this is a new normal for modern market based on 90% marketing cost. And still you stating “stay longer than their free trial” and “after signing up for a free trial”. So customers pass the signup and quit only after. You just acknowledge the problem is not a signup!
Note. For all interested in discussion about Optimization Marc Gerstein just opened separate thread Pitfalls of Optimization.