Have I Curve Fit My Book/Strategies?

Thanks for your comments, Yuval; I also found this thread response to be exceptionally helpful in case someone else goes down this rabbit hole in the future: Which ranking systems do you use? - #10 by chris319 Look for test_user’s responses, which are excellent to identify curve fit problems.

For reference:

  1. My Rolling tests look great, with very small rules and mostly Ranking systems.
  2. My subuniverse tests look decent Mod(StockID,5) if I account for Rank > x due to the smaller universe.
  3. I did not trim for outliers in the universe, but I did add minimum prices to the universe.
  4. I’ll be running 2001-2010 in Feb sometime due to increasing my subscription.
  5. Short is an open trade study from a Puts/Shorts perspective, Market Timing Problem, and Potential to Hedge with TWM. Again, I’m looking for the Greatest Alpha with the Lowest Drawdown that is tradeable and has similar performance OOS.
  6. Finally, as listed above, cutting the top 50 stocks from the performance hampers performance significantly but is still above the benchmark. As such, I’m inclined to believe it’s still okay. Thoughts? I think I read somewhere that the top 1% accounts for ALL the alpha, but perhaps I’m misstating the quote.

Thanks to everyone for your responses; they’re very much appreciated!

Tyler