Is The United States A Lucky Survivor: A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach - 2% a year

This may be an argument for global deverification :slight_smile:

For the United States, the realized rate of return exceeds the expected rate of return by 2%, which can be interpreted as the amount the historical equity premium has been overstated by.

AI - Summary:

Here are the key findings of the study:

This contributes to the understanding of how survivorship bias can influence the interpretation of historical returns and risk premium in the equity market.

1 Like