Thank you Steve,
Very interesting. Here is some more information on this but I cannot say how good the information is: SeekingAlpha
Clearly there are competitors to Tesla (more than one mentioned in the article) which I did not know about. This is unquestionably a good thing and I am glad to learn about it.
My understanding, and don’t take my word for it because I haven’t done a lot of research, is that they have prototype batteries and expect to have the first factory finished in 2024. And we need to be clear. Musk is also marketing his own brand of battery vaporware, the 4860 cell. The 4860 is driving the whoopla surrounding Tesla’s stock price (I believe). While the Solid state battery is a technical revolution, the 4860 cell is half-a-dozen technical revolutions rolled into one implementation. And Musk’s style is to declare that the revolutions(s) are in the bag when they aren’t. A good example is Full Self Drive (FSD) which was supposed to be done several years ago. Tesla isn’t the inventor of the tabless cell concept or most of the ideas presented on Battery Day, there are many companies working on these issues. He is the only one out there marketing himself as the leader and that the problem is solved. That is how you attract the big bucks.
Thank you!!!
Just to be clear your professional experience is in AI (including developing neural-networks) or were you a materials scientist/engineer?
I took a materials science course at UC Berkeley—best use of my time ever. Not that it is helping be with any of this;-) You sound a lot like my professor is why I ask (a good thing).
HaHa! Jim - I’m not your professor and full disclosure. I know nothing about materials. My observations are based on 40 years of engineering. It is clear to me that Musk is a marketing genius. From 40 years of engineering I can tell you that you can’t dictate that a technical problem will be solved, much less half a dozen technical problems that require revolutionary solutions. They will be solved when their time has come and Musk has no ability to speed it up.
The big turnoff on Battery Day was Musk’s claim that he was going to make the manufacturing floor for batteries 10x more efficient than they are today. He made similar claims regarding the Model 3 factory and was unsuccessful.
Curious if anyone has found a medium long term shorting strategy that works? That’s NOT based on Short Interest/sentiment…
So just to not leave a false impression (or look stupid or more naive than I actually am) I may buy a relatively small amount of SLV (or PSLV). Looks like early days.
Just me with my money thinking the ETF will go up based on public information. Not recommending any coordinated efforts to be sure.
Jim
Wallstreetbets Targets Silver Price of $1000.
If enough folks climb in, price will go up.
Coppock Indicator looks good.
Must read: [url=https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/52817466-andreas-repeta/5549401-sell-side-banks-pressured-hedgefunds-restricted-global-trading-in-wsb-stocks-to-avoid-losses]https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/52817466-andreas-repeta/5549401-sell-side-banks-pressured-hedgefunds-restricted-global-trading-in-wsb-stocks-to-avoid-losses[/url]
Where did you see that on walstreetbets, link the thread. Aside of ZeroHedge talking about it I haven’t found the source of that.
In game theory a Nash equilibrium sometimes needs a “focal point.”
Like if you had to meet someone in New York with minimal communication where would you go? Hopefully the Empire State Building at noon. Otherwise I would miss you.
So is Silver a “focal point” where traders will meet. Maybe the fact that JP Morgan holds the shorts does not hurt. Maybe there is already a lot of talk about silver for inflation and that will help. Or a history of silver being money in this time of fiat money.
Or the ZeroHedge article. Plus it is so shiny (and happens to have a lot of shorts which Robinhood made known to all by restricting the trades).
And banks everywhere (that may not be short silver or necessarily like Jamie Dimon) can and do buy physical silver every day without having to ask Robinhood. Wanting to speed up some of their purchase before the big squeeze may (or may not) be a focal point.
Just don’t tell me you would go to Grand Central Station at midnight. Or that you will be buying AMC on Monday (even if it is true).
I think i will test my understanding of game theory and focal points.
Jim
Nelson Bunker Hunt, how about we meet on Silver Thursday ? Oh Yeah - will you be at the top of the Empire State Building, or will I be scraping you off the pavement at the bottom?
Steve,
Edit Most important thing first: They will bail you out if you are one of them as we have already seen with GME, Cohen, Citadel. Point72 and Melvin Capitol. Even when there is no question who the manipulators are.
“To save the situation, a consortium of US banks provided a $1.1 billion line of credit to the brothers which allowed them to pay Bache which, in turn, survived the ordeal.”
So I was thinking that we would meet for lunch and I would be long gone by Thursday. Timing is everything.
Before Hunt’s Thursday reckoning silver did this (from your link):
“In 1979, the price for silver (based on the London Fix) jumped from $6.08 per troy ounce ($0.195/g) on January 1, 1979, to a record high of $49.45 per troy ounce ($1.590/g) on January 18, 1980, an increase of 713%.”
I had already thought of the Hunt brothers and one reason I mentioned other banks (probably “other investors” would have been better). I am not sure all investors are short. So:
Silver can be manipulated as you point out. And some say it is very manipulated now (prices kept low).
It may not be just the Reddit crowd interested in this but they are a new force that is active now (see below about other potential players).
Some wealthy people are sympathetic to the Reddit crowd. Like Mark Cuban who has posted on this. And he is not restricted by Robinhood I would guess. Marco probably does not call himself rich in this time of money printing (I certainly do not). But he is in the business, sympathetic and I do not expect he will comment. But no one could fault him for buying a commodity in this time of potential inflation and picking the one that he thought would do the best all things considered—including what is being published on mainstream sites like Bloomberg about short interest being massively high. People run ports on this idea without it being called manipulation.
Some banks have a long interest in silver. For example Wells Fargo & Company as well as Morgan Stanley are among the top 10 holders of PSLV. Maybe they do not like the idea that silver’s prices may be manipulated against them and they might want to buy because it is cheap now—nothing wrong with that especially if they are proven right about silver being cheap.
Exchanges changed the rules then. They have and will now. That needs to be considered. Probably argues for buying some Vanguard ETFs. Probably an exciting bond fund—you know with foreign bonds to make sure your investment barely keeps up with inflation no matter what the dollar does. Actually I have some (leveraged) US bonds in my portfolio so I am not really against this.
The shorts may squeeze themselves to some extent. They do not want to be accused of manipulating the markets either (to the short side) and may get rid of any ridiculous-looking short positions. And could be worried about a squeeze and want to get ahead of it.
But realistically maybe it is 50-50. Just 50% chance that SLV is up 100%. And 50% chance that any squeeze that has already occurred falls apart: perhaps SLV falls 20% then.
Which would you regret more? Being in and losing 20% of your investment or being out of silver and missing out on a doubling. Use your own numbers for likely gains/losses.
Pick you own numbers for what you think could happen and size your positions according to you own “regret minimization strategy” would be my advice. Another game theory consideration I am afraid: This time from Texas No Limit Hold’em.
I was going to buy some precious metals anyway. I think instead of gold, platinum or palladium I will buy more silver than I originally planned and adjust my ratio of holdings going forward according to what unfolds. My position size will probably be about what I was planning anyway. I would regret a 20% loss compared to gold or palladium. But I would regret missing out on any fun more.
The Hunt brothers are an important consideration that I thought of myself. Thank you for posting about them.
Jim
Here is a SA article making a positive case for silver. The author holds Xtierra Inc. closing 0.082 USD on Jan 27.
This can easily double in price to 0.16 USD for a 100% gain. Perhaps Jim should buy this one, why bother with SLV?
You can also buy the 2x leveraged ETF AGO.
Silver Chartbook - A Million Reasons To Buy Silver
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4402156-silver-chartbook-million-reasons-to-buy-silver
I checked on Google Trends, search term silver. There is so far no uptick in search volume.
Go for it Jim! Just keep in mind that Gold and Silver have been manipulated by big players for a long time, and they probably have friends in high places. But it would be nice to see this market manipulation brought to its knees.
While a not a precious metal, lithium has been on tear lately. LAC and PLL call options have been unusually active starting Dec’2020. LIT, too.
Walter
Thank you Walter. I think that is a good idea.
I will look at this closer but I think I will probably add that as one of my commodities/precious metals.
Jim
It’s time to take out sentiment from ranking systems?
