I did not do that here but I do think market cap makes a difference (better predictions for large-caps) from some of the other research I did today. I think that is right.
Also the total size of the Polymarket bets is a big factor. There were some guidlines on that but I do not recall them off hand.
New large bets coming in close to announcements was another thing mentioned. Someone having important new information making large bets is said to make a difference.
I did not confirm any of that here or quantitate any of it (if the sources are correct).
Right. Like betting on the long shot in a horse race.
And I think if you had any edge at allâeven a 3 or 4% edgeâPolymarket betting could be profitable even with the trading costs. You would probably have to keep your bets smallâbelow the Kelly betting criteria for binary outcomes for sure.
I tried the math on using it as a hedge. I was not sure.
I do think that one should get our of a position BEFORE the earnings announcement when the P(beat) or the probability of beating the earnings estimates are below 0.4.The stock probably will not beat and even when the there is an earnings beat the company still tends to not do so well after the announcement when the P(beat) < 0.4
