Polymarket is predictive of earnings beats for sure: New use case for P123 AI? - #25 by Jrinne . Maybe politics too. If so, this suggest that the strait of Hormuz closure is likely to extend beyond 2 weeks–assuming a cease fire is related to safe reopening, of course.
Related to how strong the ceasefire connection to reopening really is, Iran has lost warships in the region, but they could continue asymmetric warfare with drones and less so with mines, for example. Keeping passage unsafe. Not sure what the Polymarket odds might be on that.