Just a heads up that I am making various models available in my Research Group called Hemmerling Models. Anyone can join (no permission needed).
I added in my 'risk meter' which I feel does a pretty good job of side-stepping major market volatility. I decided in the interest of potentially helping others avoid downside volatility - I would make all the formulas and inputs transparent.
Hopefully someone will improve upon it and share freely the enhancements.
The LinkedIn article where I discuss the formulas and the logic of them is here.
If you want to connect with me on LinkedIn, I post a lot about ideas and models for P123 users.
Any way to make the 50day SMA SP 500 series start in 1999? As it is, I have to create my own custom series to make it start in 1999 and it is a pain for anyone wanting to copy my risk meter.
In that screen I make each of the 4 components a variable.
The only difference is with the credit spread rules. I have 3 of them (@4@5@6) and if 2 of the 3 have red flags - then the credit spread rule triggers. All 3 sum to be just 1 rule though.
The line you copied simply means if the risk meter has 0, 1 or 2 red flags...then stay invested.
If there are 3 or 4 red flags....go to cash (or hedge or whatever you do when markets might crash)
Thanks for sharing and for refocusing on risk management! I was wondering if there’s any update on that. Last year, there was mention of a possible update, and I wanted to check in on where things stand.
I’d be happy to try building something myself, but unfortunately, the tools just aren’t available.
With Q1 2025 almost wrapped up, an update would be really helpful.
Thanks for this, great work!
I get this when i try to use it as a hedge in a sim:
"Error in Hedging Buy Rule 'Entry1': In $RiskAll: In $RiskAll -> $RiskTrsd: Error near 'Aggregate': Invalid command 'Aggregate'"
In a fundamental chart it works, whats wrong here?
Hmm...not sure. I made mine into an aggregate series so I could reference it using the close(0,getseries"") function. I found that worked simpler as the aggregate series only has to calculate it once (instead of on the fly with each sim).
