Let's say you want to build an option backtester, how would you do it?
Well, I would argue you would want to do it in much the same way we do it right now within Portfolio123 for equities: you would want to rank them. Let's focus on put options for the obvious benefit of hedging.
At each point in time I would want to have a Universe of all liquid put options available. At each point in time, I would also like to have the corresponding underlying stock data - which Portfolio123 already has - 'linked' to the option.
To test an option strategy, I would like to perform a ranking backtest (again, much like with equities). For each point in time (e.g. weekly), I would then rank all the options based on 'option'-factors.
What are option factors? Some ideas below:
- The rank of the underlying stock within a equity ranking system (as we currently have) - higher better, assuming a short system
- The price of the option alone (In your example data, this would be 'Last') - lower better
- The price of the option divided by the Black-Scholes value of the option or the Binomial Price. The Black-Scholes and Binomial Price values can already be calculated within Portfolio123 data (given a certain strike price) - lower better
- The historical volatility of the underlying divided by the Implied Volatility of the option - higher better
- The Greek sensitivities (delta, gamma, etc.) divided by the price of the option (I would want more sensitivity to underlying for the price I pay for an option) - higher better
- Rank the price of the option against options on equities in the same (sub)industry - lower better
and possibly more: price of the option divided by time to experiation (lower better), the price of the option now versus the price 4 weeks ago (higher better or perhaps lower better).
I would then want to run this ranking test over the last 20+ years and look for the best metrics to rank put options on. I would want to check for robustness over time periods and potentially over geographies (again, much like we do with equities today).
Finally, once I have 'working' option factors, I would want to combine it in a simulation (or a book) with one of my stock strategies with relatively realistic slippage. In a perfect world, I would be able to have a link with IBKR or an other broker where I can buy these liquid put options along with my long equity strategy.
As an investor, that would be huge. I mean, we already cover the long side in an effective way with Portfolio123. Assuming the Europe (and perhaps even the Asian) coverage comes through, I already have global coverage.
Combining that with a way to profit from the 'short'-side, would be a dream.