Prediction: Spy close 449.7 Can I use this prediction?


This is an AIRMA prediction from JASP. JASP has a new Time Series (beta) module.

I do not know much about AIRMA. I am posting to learn and not making any claims or recommendations in a sim.

I can say it it easy to use. I simply downloaded P123’s data for SPY from a P123 sim. I had to change the date format. Entered date and the time in the menu at the left. Clicked the option for a prediction.

Potential use case: I would not mind if this worked for predicting next month’s returns on a set of ETFs.

Or: Red flag on a ticker time-series: I.e.,don’t buy if the AIRMA prediction for next week is negative (or some threshold of negative prediction) even if P123 is recommending a buy in the port.

This could easily be tested in a sim, for say, 100 random historical recommendations.