Predictor Training Period and traditional simualtion

General
1

So I'm seeing some very good simulation results from an AI Factors predictor.

The predictor training period is from 2003-07-01 to 2023-07-01 and 12Rel return is the target.

The simulation period is 07/04/23 - 07/04/24. So it starts immediately after the predictor training period.

Attached is the sim result. Selling is disabled, so days held is 365.

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Is there any data after the predictor training period used in the predictor? I feel like I'm overlooking something. I'm guessing the target being referenced. Just need to confirm.

2

The sim should start after the last day of predictor training (i.e., 2023-07-01) plus the length of your target (12 months).

The sim should not start until 2024-07-01. So I don't think that works.

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3

I think I agree. I reran the predictor to end a year earlier - 2022-07-01 - and the simulation results are about half. That's more reasonable.

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