Split Adjusted prices? For long term (24 years)

[rtelford]

I’m looking at very long term returns of individual stocks, as far back as we have data (1999).

For return from say 01 Jan 1999 to 31 Dec 2022, I’m using ret%chg(6024), where 6024 = 201 bars per year x 24 years.

This is fascinating, for example if you bought GE at 01 Jan 1999, your absolute return at 31 Dec 2022 would have been -29% (or -1.4% CAGR).

Looking at the long term chart, this looks about right:

The first question though is whether this formula is split adjusted?

The reason I ask, if you look at SeekingAlpha data, the price data is very different:

And 24 year return looks in the order of -66% or so.

A more extreme example is for AIG, where 24 year return is -99%:

Our P123 indicates the splits, again is the overall price data for the long term calc split adjusted? Or is the -99% due to the splits?

SA data looks to be about the same:

Thoughts?

Thanks!
Ryan

[yuvaltaylor]

A couple of observations:

201 bars is not a year. 251 bars is a year. But I’m sure that was a typo; 6024 is 24 years.

The chart in the P123 timeline is adjusted for dividends and the chart in Seeking Alpha is not (both are adjusted for splits).

[rtelford]

Yes, the 201 bars/year was a typo! Should be 251.

Got you on the dividends - you can toggle the dividends in the SA charts in the “Advanced Tab”, and long term returns are then more or less in line with P123.

Thanks!