Jim / Scott,
In the last 10 days, 3.11M tested positive in US. That works out to about 1.6% of the total workforce. And no peak yet.
Virtually all of them will recover, but most will be prevented from working or going out (economic activity).
Same demand, less production = more inflation
Western Europe has consistent been about six weeks ahead of the US, and they also made a new record Monday and, for now, are not showing signs of peaking.
Regards
James
I made a bad mistake in my calculation where I said the last 6 months the mortality was 1.5% (I was using running totals, not period totals). It’s actually 1.01% , so seems to be dropping much faster.
I’m simply using numbers from the graphs in COVID Live - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
The corrected numbers are
6.3% for wave 1 (feb 2020 - jun 2020)
1.5% for wave 2 (jun 2020 - jun 2021)
1.01% for wave 3 (jun 2021 - jan 2022)
1% is still very high. But If these numbers are not reliable (cases are actually 10x , mortality overstated, etc) then who knows what is going on
Thank you Marco.
Marco,
I do not have numbers that I want to post. I am good with 1%, BTW.
Remember, especially with Omicron there is the claim that a lot of people have the disease but never have symptoms and probably never get tested. They clearly are cases.
The CDC and WHO are having problems with quantitating these people. I like the CDC and FDA despite any weakness. Probably things like this are the cause of any hesitancy to publish any numbers (not some conspiracy). I guess someone will have to look at this when they put the final numbers in the text books
Serious stuff no matter what the numbers are. And at a minimum any spike that stresses hospitals has to be addressed.
Thank you for the data.
Best,
Jim
The denominator of the number of cases is likely much higher which makes the mortality lower. This is because there is a large gap between the amount of covid detected in sewage (it’s 2-3x higher in sewage) relative to the amount of positive tests. This is because the US can test 2 million people a day and in a flare 25% are positive so it can only diagnose 500,000 infections per day (This is approximate) but Omnicron is spreading faster than this.
Jim / Scott,
Bloomberg UK
@BloombergUK 2 hours ago
JUST IN: U.K. reports 218,724 new daily Covid-19 cases, the first time the figure has topped 200,000
UK also reporting record daily high COVID cases just now.
Regards
James
I know several people who know they likely contracted it, but they can’t find rapid at home test and because their symptoms are not serious they’re not bothering to go to our local testing backlogged testing facilities and wait in line 1-2 hours.
I imagine we’re only picking up a small sample of cases.
I have family members who work at our local hospital in Florida. Our case rates now are going straight vertical, and it’s almost entirely Omicron because we had an absolutely brutal Delta wave previously in the summer/early fall and had phenomenally low rates in the months that followed until Omicron hit over the holidays. While were are seeing rises in “hospitalized” currently, it’s not the same kind of hospitalizations that we saw during Delta. During Delta we were seeing much hospitalizations with really severe COVID pneumonias that required ventilators and ICU stays. A lot of our hospitalized now are elderly (mostly vaccinated) who are just really uncomfortable/weak and dehydrated and need a 1 or 2 day stays hooked on an IV and observation before they are discharged. Almost all of our serious ICU/Ventilator cases are unvaccinated (fwiw just reporting what I hear, not trying to start a debate over it … I really respect that this community remains mostly apolitical and I don’t wish to disrupt that). That said, it sounds like the regions of the US that are simultaneously getting hit with Delta are still experiencing a lot of the same severity we saw over the summer during our Delta wave. Scary stuff.
Stay safe and best of health to everyone.
At one point I predicted there would be herd immunity soon. At the time it was commonly published that mutations similar to what we see with influenza recombinations were not possible (e.g., H1N1 becomes H1N3 or H2N1 in parts of the world where pigs and birds are in close proximity). Turns out–whatever was thought at the time–mutations are a problem.
I could try to blame it on the journals but I am here to say I was wrong. There will be no herd immunity, I think. Not what we have thought of as herd immunity, anyway. Maybe they will just redefine it.
This Journal of the American Medical Association link calls it the “zero Covid strategy.” I may be oversimplifying but I think he is saying that is dead. A National Strategy for the “New Normal” of Life With COVID
I am hesitant to link to this because I didn’t actually see anything actionable. But is refreshing to see people admit that strategy that they thought would work will not. Plain and simple.
Jim
Jim / Scott,
EU/US just too big (population) to peak without the world peaking.
So far, the world is not peaking.
Regards
James
Jim,
These European countries are seeing a second surge after it was said their Omicron wave peaked.
Regards
James
James, Thanks. -Jim
Hi James,
I’ve also been following the hospitalizations on this wave and they have decoupled from the number of infections relative to prior waves (less hospitalizations per infection this wave) however the sheer number of infections (which is greater than prior waves) could result in hospitalizations equaling or surpassing the prior waves.
Also as I mentioned previously we are significantly under reporting the number of infections
Scott
If I understand this correctly, in order to achieve herd immunity, we need to get the R0 (the rate of reproduction) under 1, which would mean that each person who gets it would pass it on to less than one other person on average.
There are indications that natural immunity (unlike vaccines), lasts. This could make herd immunity achievable.
We should also be seriously considering redesigning ventilation for buildings. This is especially important for super spreader venues where there are travelers plus prolonged close indoor contact such as bars and special events.
I would be careful about confusing rate of infection, R0, with herd immunity. They aren’t the same. At several times the R0 has dropped below 1. That’s what in fact happens when cases decrease which you know we have observed several times.
Perhaps, although there is much documented evidence of reinfection of those with prior infections and even more so with Omicron, albeit Omicron does appear milder. Vaccines are maintaining a level of immunity which does decrease over time, but the data is also showing the same for natural immunity. This is consistent with experience with common colds many which are caused by a few coronaviruses. Yet the average American gets 2-3 colds a year. One thing to consider with the flu or cold is that herd immunity is never really achieved but perhaps these diseases are less severe because we are constantly exposed to them throughout our lives. These diseases have also adapted to the human host. Typically as diseases adapt to a host they do become less deadly over time but this is a gradual and random process in the short term.
Totally agree. Although I think over the coming months we will reach a collective exhaustion of COVID and won’t care about the risk. The stock market no longer cares and has moved on.
Scott,
When I read the article I linked to above I had not realized that Ezekiel Emanuel had coauthored it. As you probably know, he played a big part in the writing of the affordable care act. He doesn’t just write editorials. He shapes policy.
Also I think it is no coincidence that he is writing this as Omicron is becoming the predominant strain. He probably has an opinion as to the the ability to achieve zero Omicron as well as early results on the case fatality rate for this strain.
The article speaks for itself without adding my predictions about Omicron. But without a lot of surprises one can expect this kind of thinking to shape policy going forward. Certainly in things like insurance coverage, vaccine regulations etc. I am sure that people in the Biden administration have at least read this–as well as longer policy recommendations from him and his coworkers. I think it is already backed into the cake (barring any surprises). Ezekiel Emanuel has an influence on, or even direct control of, the policies we will see: not an endorsement of, or comment on, the affordable care act.
Best,
Jim
Jim / Scott,
It seems that Swiss Covid infections already surpassed the 7-day rolling average peak by more than 2x.
Regards
James
Hi Jim,
Which article did Ezekiel Emanuel co-author? I usually don’t follow him but am aware of his influence.
James,
S Africa took about 2 months for the peak to turn and we are already seeing a decrease from the peak in several US states or territories, like Maryland, Ohio, Maine, & D.C. so the US could be close (? within a few weeks) to a peak.
Scott
Hi Scott,
I do not follow him either. I don’t want to pick on anyone. But can’t you tell who has actually seen a patient in say the last 2 decades? Some people setting policy have not been seeing patients or even been doing their own research for a while. Honestly, I will take (and actually have) treatment from a random doctor at an urgent care clinic over some of the people in charge of setting policy. I went to an urgent care clinic to get tested for Covid just to see if I should isolate (and tested positive). I saw a random practicing MD there and saw no need to see anyone else. A practicing MD automatically weighs risks and benefits and has some no-BS (practical) data at their fingertips. Not the first real case they have seen in the last few hours (not decades).
Also to the point of not wanting to single anyone out, I am not sure Dr. Emanuel does not have a pretty good point about what can be accomplish regardless of what I may think about the day-to-day implications of the affordable care act (I hate the extra administrative work to be sure).
Anyway this was just an editorial in JAMA that I read while looking at the abstracts. But this has been quoted elsewhere. And I see the CDC changing its position. For example, they are working on sorting out whether people in the hospital are admitted for the problem of COVID or whether they tested positive when they were admitted for another problem. Generally, a more relaxed position from the CDC, I think.
And while things change each news cycle it seems, I think the CDC wants to keep schools open today.
If I overstated Dr. Emanual’s political power (or anything else), please feel free to expand.
Link: JAMAnetwork.com. I hope (assume) you will not have problems with a paywall. I will cut and paste if you do. For now, the link works for me when I check it.
Best,
Jim
Jim / Scott,
According to this article, average hospitalizations soared to 131,370 over the past week, close to the peak of hospitalizations during the early days of January last year, according to Johns Hopkins University data. I will send you the whole article via email in case you don’t have a subscription to Barrons.
Regards
James
U.S. Covid Hospitalizations Near January 2021 Peaks
U.S. cases of Covid-19 requiring hospitalization are close to reaching the peak of last year, according to the latest data.
The average number of Covid-19-related hospitalizations nationwide soared to 131,370 over the past week, which is 96% of peak hospitalizations during the week of Jan. 4 to Jan. 10, 2021, according to Johns Hopkins University data.
That includes 22,125 coronavirus patients in intensive care beds nationally, or nearly 76% of the ICU beds needed in early January last year.
Almost 25% of hosptials are reporting “critical staffing shortages,” according to USA Today, citing data from the Department of Health and Human Services. That’s the most since the start of the pandemic.
The seven-day average of newly reported coronavirus cases has risen to 709,633, and is on pace to triple the coronavirus record set last January, when the U.S. averaged one-quarter of a milion daily cases, according to The Wall Street Journal’s analysis of Johns Hopkins University data.
The U.S. reported 307,208 confirmed cases on Monday, and 330 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins.
[quote]
I would be careful about confusing rate of infection, R0, with herd immunity. They aren’t the same. At several times the R0 has dropped below 1. That’s what in fact happens when cases decrease which you know we have observed several times.
[/quote]You are correct of course. But isn’t it that way with every herd immunity? Imagine if you can reduce risk of transmission by 70% with vaccines and/or natural immunity in children, and another 70% by regulating super spreader events. You could then have a reduction in transmission of about 90%.
[quote]
[quote]
There are indications that natural immunity (unlike vaccines), lasts. This could make herd immunity achievable.
[/quote]Perhaps, although there is much documented evidence of reinfection of those with prior infections and even more so with Omicron, albeit Omicron does appear milder. Vaccines are maintaining a level of immunity which does decrease over time, but the data is also showing the same for natural immunity.
[/quote]Okay, so I have not been keeping up with more recent data, but based on the data I downloaded from the Israeli Ministry of Health a few months ago (they kept pretty good records), natural immunity remained at about 90% for months, while Pfizer vaccine induced immunity started off stronger but was dropping down to 70% or less after a few months.
[quote]
Typically as diseases adapt to a host they do become less deadly over time but this is a gradual and random process in the short term.
[/quote]That’s encouraging.
There are some indications that if the pharmaceutical industry was properly motivated to test existing treatments, we would have been able to lower the fatality rate by 90% or more by stacking different interventions.
See for example, COVID-19 early treatment: real-time analysis of 3,558 studies
Of course, this summary is only a starting point for research, but there are some promising interventions listed.
Jim,
Thank you for the article
Jim/James,
Ireland, Iceland and UK have had a drop in their peak number of cases or it appears that the O wave is starting to “roll over” there
Scott
