I would not buy anything until 1-2 more weeks. USA has a huge number of incubating infections; wait to see if they break the healthcare system or not in the next couple of weeks.
Well my plan was spot on. But messed it up somewhat again, spooked by the huge number of new infections in my country , 3500!
We’ll probably keep hitting new lows. Just trying to make some $ from this volatility.
I think it’s very doable, but hard to keep a steady hand . These are not financial numbers we are getting live updates on like in 2008.
These are lives 
Macro,
I switched out of RWM to VIXY at market opening to bet on the increasing volatility.
Down around 0.5% for the day as the market close near the day high. (much better than holding RWM which is down more than 6%)
and VIXY is up 2% in after hours trading.
You may want to consider buying VXX or VIXY instead of shorting SPY if you want a pure bet on market volatility.
Regards
James
Jim,
It seems that the volatility model that I sent you via email is actually working.
VIXY is up 12% in pre-market.
Based on the model, I will move to 50/50 VIXY/RWM for my portfolio today and take profit on 50% VIXY at market opening.
Regards
James
James,
Thank you. Are you looking to go long today if the market opens down and continues its usual pattern of going further down by the end of the day?
I did not get the email.
Best,
Jim
Jim,
I will be holding 50/50 VIXY/RWM today. I daily re-balance at market opening based on the model and do not switch in/out of positions intraday.
I have re-send the volatility model to you.
Regards
James
James and All,
I guess futures are locked down but SPY is down 6.5% (236.40) in ext hours. Whatever I end up doing I do I will try not to get too excited at the open.
Best,
Jim
Jim,
Pls check your email box again.
I just send you the spreadsheet of the results for the combination of the two models (QQQ/XLK risk on and VIXY/RWM risk off).
Regards
James
hi James,
Do you know why VIXY is up as VIX going down today?
–Terry
Terry,
VIXY invest in short term VIX futures, VIX is spot.
The correlation is high and usually it goes up/down together but not necessarily all the time.
Regards
James
[quote]
I’m just saying I would zero in on healthcare reits first – a lot of them will likely have rising revenues if this is bad – so, stay financially strong. And should be okay if this is short-lived also. Relatively speaking.
Residential and apt reits more subject to lost income by real workers and real sales / income losses and downgrades. People are already being laid off in restaurant and hospitality industries… so, seems like healthcare reits have the ‘real estate piece’ – but also a prospect for rising income / revenues.
[/quote]People are cancelling doctor appointments. (A short term issue) Some nursing homes may have fewer patients (a longer term issue). So, it would depend on the health care REIT.
Apartment REITs tend to get more customers when income goes down, as people move out of houses and into apartments. However, I am hopeful that the US will return to some semblance of normalcy with a couple of months, similar to China. New cases in Italy are already flat.
Jim,
The volatility risk-off model is working,
My portfolio is up 15% today. (VIXY +17% and RWM +7%.)
Regards
James
James.
That is really cool! I am betting Marco made some money too. I was surprised to see the market cuts the loses so dramatically on the close.
Is that a sign that institutional money is starting to buy?
Best,
-Jim
Jim,
I don’t think any institutional investor will be buying at this time. The last 15 mins is probably shorts covering and profit taking from the intra-day traders.
Regards
James
Not making money, just losing less.Today I managed to lessen the blow to 1/2 of the market. I’m now basically flat for the year. Guess that’s good considering how many mistakes I made. I’m still having issues sticking with the plan for the day. I closed my hedge too early today. I had -10% in mind but somehow I closed at -6%. Guess we made the “Manage” tools too easy to place orders! (shameless plug)
James looks like is killing it.
One trick that seems to start working for me is to follow through with the gut feeling, but just add a delay of 1-2 hours. It worked when I went long today at exactly the bottom. I’m up a bit on the long. But probably just what James says , a relief rally from short covering , and selling will resume tomorrow
We’ll see. Feels oversold. although aapl yet to crack. That WILL be the capitulation bc it means people need the funds. 17 out of my 61 positions closed in the green. so THERE IS some buying going on.
Anyway went long with side cash with:
Bought more ZNGA bc people will play more games
Bought BMRA even after today’s 300% jump bc 10 min CV-19 test is the key to containment .
Bought GCO @6.7 bc it’s owned by the “gems” model and it’s down from $50. That’s an 87% drop! Come on! It’s just nuts. They sell shoes. People are going to stop buying shoes?
Went long IWM @ 97.5 with the rest
Every day is a new day. keep it simple. don’t use margin. make a plan. be like water
(and wash your hands)
There’s also one more thing…
Shorting & timing can be very difficult psychologically. You start rooting for the bad guys.
You really start to question your morals.
Probably similar to what lawyers go through at some point…
Anyway might explain why I’m not very good at it
So, I am not killing it like James and Marco.
But I have to force myself to delay also. I see a decent price in the morning and I have to force myself not to buy everything I want when I think the price will be better later.
Marco, I used a little automation also. I used limit VWAP orders to slow the buying. I reset the limit price a couple of times.
Probably one of those behavioral things that the Renaissance Techologies AI can take advantage of when we don’t use a little automation ourselves.
Jim
Game plan for tomorrow ?
I’m happy where I am at having gone risk-on, 100% equities at a good spot today. Futures up a point or two bc of 750B stimulus . Need one more piece of good news , anything , and tomorrow will be a huge relief rally.
Absent that I’ll probably raise cash and reopen short very close to opening as the stimulus effect will fizzle. And of course bad news will keep coming.
Share your ideas!
I’m still keeping my far dated long PUT. It keeps making money as market went down. At the same time, I’m use the put protection to start building up stocks to keep my portfolio to curve up it market goes up. Eventually, it’s pretty much market neutral. I will add short position if market rally tomorrow.
I also follow p123 long/short stock ports. I feel it’s still not time to risk on since the market outside the US is start melting down. There are so many new cases in Asia (23 new cases in TW in one day.) everywhere since many people fly from EU and US to Asia now.
Terry
If this goes viral (no pun intended) we may have the 2nd piece of good news setting up for a monster rally
Up 200 likes/retweets in about 10 min … 5K retweets, 10.7K likes at 9:36pm central time
https://twitter.com/JamesTodaroMD/status/1240274548165169157
BREAKING RESEARCH FROM CLINICAL TRIAL on HCQ + azithromycin in treatment of COVID-19.
100% of patients with COVID-19 were virologically cured after 6 DAYS of treatment.
p-value <0.0001