AI-linked companies are now >10% of global market cap

[ZGWZ]

NVDA may be a scam: Maybe the real AI gold rush is the junk stonk we pump and dump along the way

I think the AI narrative is basically just a rebranding of the COVID-era "growth" hype linked to infamous figures like Aunt Wood, in order to revive the stock prices of semiconductor- and cloud-related "high-growth" story-tellers and unprofitable crapw in 2022 after the bubble slightly bursts. And other stakeholders have led, participated or acquiesced in these speculations for their own interests. [d6ac0cb5-712e-4047-824c-1a29c556816d] For example, the "Mag7" wants to boost its share price, …

NVDA may be a scam: Maybe the real AI gold rush is the junk stonk we pump and dump along the way

I can't find 17% and 13% in the chart [Screenshot_20240913-173725] The "fake foreign cash" problem may also exist: [Screenshot_20240913-174624] [Screenshot_20240913-174811] "Lower tax rates abroad" may mean non-existent cash income, non-existent tax payments and non-existent cash balances. Instead, share buybacks may be mostly backed by debt financing from affiliated entities including CoreWeave. The worse part is not CoreWeave itself. It is about the AI Infrastructure Server Solution…

NVDA may be a scam: Maybe the real AI gold rush is the junk stonk we pump and dump along the way

I think it's far more than just being illegal. There are basically no companies that don't always cook their books (very) illegally. For example, I said many large/mega US-listed companies may falsify their cash flow figures in the name of overseas cash and stabilize & inflate their FCF yields. My suspicion is that there are extremely serious falsifications and misstatements about NVDA so I said it may be a scam. For example, there may be fraudulent round-tripping "sales" like SenseTime (a typi…

NVDA may be a scam: Maybe the real AI gold rush is the junk stonk we pump and dump along the way

The short-seller reports for other companies invested by Nvidia: SOUN: NNOX: We are short NNOX because we think it is a much bigger piece of garbage than Nikola will ever be TSP: L4 Autonomous Truck Driving will not be so simple for TuSimple Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: TSP) Why we believe the Company is All Smoke and Mirrors SERV: "Even though five of the seven US-listed companies NVIDIA invests in have short-selling reports, that in no way means there's anything wrong with NVIDIA, right? …

NVDA may be a scam: Maybe the real AI gold rush is the junk stonk we pump and dump along the way

In a 13F filing earlier this year, Nvidia disclosed its investments in five companies as of Dec. 31, 2023: SoundHound AI (NASDAQ: SOUN), Arm Holdings (NASDAQ: ARM), Recursion Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: RXRX), Nano-X Imaging (NASDAQ: NNOX), and TuSimple Holdings Four of them are losing money and the other one aka ARM has a PE ratio of 300+. The most shocking one is TuSimple Holdings because it is a stock listed in OTC and even has a "Delinquent SEC Reporting" status. [Screenshot_20240913-01184…

NVDA may be a scam: Maybe the real AI gold rush is the junk stonk we pump and dump along the way

One of these, I believe, is APLD. They're ranked #1 on my list of stocks to buy puts on. They recently raised $160M from a Nvidia private placement, which made their stock go up over $6: a perfect opportunity for me to buy some $4 and $4.50 puts because the price of those puts went way down. This is a company with negative gross margins, huge net losses, depleted cash reserves, asset sales, equipment issues, and questions about the true demand for their services. This quarter's interest expense…

NVDA may be a scam: Maybe the real AI gold rush is the junk stonk we pump and dump along the way

We are on the same page. If this is truly going to be a disruptive technology, the last place you want to be is in the established players with existing cashcow business models that are begging to be dirsupted. It's kind of amazing to me the things people claim AI bots and script writers will be able to do in the next 5-7, but somehow they won't let you to easily move your data out of your cloud walled garden mega public-provider, administer it on a private cloud and get around the current loc…

NVDA may be a scam: Maybe the real AI gold rush is the junk stonk we pump and dump along the way

The "CUDA is the moat" argument is kind of funny to me, because the AI Maximalists will say that AI is so revolutionary because it completely democratizes knowledge and puts all the established powers in the crosshairs and any average person can just log into an LLM and start pumping out workable code witha few prompts... EXCEPT for AI engineers, who will only learn or use this one specific piece of established software and there can be no other viable imitators or disruptors. I dunno, sounds …

NVDA may be a scam: Maybe the real AI gold rush is the junk stonk we pump and dump along the way

There have been lots of rumblings about potential fraudulent practices in their partnership with Coreweave and other datacenter builders. They issue huge amounts of debt to these datacenter buildrs, and they all put in orders for NVDA gpus that NVDA reports as revenue. These datacenter builders use GPUs as collateral on the debt. There's hedge funds like Magnetar Capital, who were neck deep in the CDO issuances in 2008, involved and getting their beak wet in these deals too. To me this so…

NVDA may be a scam: Maybe the real AI gold rush is the junk stonk we pump and dump along the way

[Screenshot_20240912-011704] [Screenshot_20240912-011830] [Screenshot_20240912-011934] [Screenshot_20240912-012038] Interestingly, while all independent sources agree that AMD's gaming graphics sales in Q1 2024 are not lower or even higher than in Q1 2023, its earnings report states that its gaming graphics sales are down by nearly half and "coincide" with a similar increase in sales in its data centre division to keep the total sales nearly the same. Considering the more stable price of A…

NVDA may be a scam: Maybe the real AI gold rush is the junk stonk we pump and dump along the way

What's more interesting is that TSMC's sales in 2023 compared to 2022 have decreased rather than increased. And the TTM sales growth is only in single digits. So is this because TSMC is saturated with capacity and NVIDIA is moving to other partners? But UMC, the second largest chipmaker, even saw a double-digit drop in sales - even Intel, which is almost reduced to a meme stock, didn't grow its sales at such a low rate, with its TTM sales growth rate just a bit lower than TSMC's (1.99% vs. 5.61…

NVDA may be a scam: Maybe the real AI gold rush is the junk stonk we pump and dump along the way

[Screenshot_20240911-045757] After all, you don't need CUDA to use Pytorch even before this toolkit, just some hassle. But if the fabled shortage of accelerator cards and the resulting insane profit margins do exist, I'm sure people won't care about these minor inconveniences.

NVDA may be a scam: Maybe the real AI gold rush is the junk stonk we pump and dump along the way

[Screenshot_20240911-035702] This is the price action for H100. Prices are falling just as fast, or faster. It is not what you would expect from a real demand mania I chose the price chart for game cards simply because they are easier to understand. After all, this isn't your familiar dot-com bubble scam with nearly zero revenue like those biopharma scam stonks. It is more like the China Hustles with cooked books like PDD, SMCI, ZTO, NIO, etc. Edit: Also, AMD has its flagship acceleratio…

NVDA may be a scam: Maybe the real AI gold rush is the junk stonk we pump and dump along the way

I've never cared much for NVIDIA because it's a mega-cap stock and completely out of my league. But I recently read an article claiming that NVIDIA is a scam. I thought "how is this possible". After all, Enron and Wirecard were not among the largest companies in the world. I can't imagine even one of the world's largest companies being a scam. However, I did do a research. One of the centrepieces of the NVIDIA narrative is that AI demand drove demand for graphics cards, allowing them to grow s…