Expectations when going short / buying puts

Piotr,

The market does not always behave normally or according to history.

Sometimes the market just moves how it wants.

Another strange sign that someone knows something:

Gold is up ~20% over the last 5 months and has DOUBLED the S&P 500's return.

Meanwhile, bonds are down nearly 9% as interest rate cuts are priced-out.

Historically speaking, gold and bonds have almost always traded together.

There is now a ~30% GAP between the performance of gold and bonds, one of the 5-month divergences largest on record.

Gold is completely ignoring the fact that higher interest rates are here to stay while bonds are getting crushed.

Why is there a global rush for gold when we are on track for a "soft landing?"

It simply doesn't add up.

The best way to invest is to put your own view on the market.

Regards
James

1 Like

OK, thanks.

Wanted to give a short heads-up in this forum post.

I used this factor function for a while in short and put option systems, as was also found in the ranking system I refered to:

CurQEPSStdDev/abs(CurQEPSMean)

As described here (IMPORTANT: Fix for StdDev of split-sensitive estimates has been released) this previously gave non realistic returns. I still think it is a good factor to use, but the returns that were previously obtained were wrong.

Best,

Victor

1 Like