Ghost models

I just don’t think the total addressable market for DMs is that big. P123 could try to scalp from other platforms based on features and designs wins. However, that list of competitors is very short.

This is why I applaud P123 steering towards providing AMs with a more complete set of AM tools. The AM market on the other hand, while facing its own set of competitive pressures, is still very large.

I’d love to someday open up my own family office. I imagine it be much easier if I could run investment research and investment operations from a single platform, which could very well be P123.

The early days of R2G indicated that there is a reasonable market for DMs. The problem is that we aren’t being provided with the tools to properly market the models. As a marketer, I need direct signup to any model by nonmembers of P123, I need to be able to embed current model performance (graph) on an external site, and be able to use affiliate link for any page on P123, not just the front page.

I agree with all of that. I just dug up a screen capture of a 2014 DM (not one of mine) that had 70 subscribers. So at one time, the marketplace was pretty active.

Tools for Designers to directly market their models is critical. I like the idea of direct signup and/or a P123 provide Designer landing page and/or P123 providing just backend services. Models like those found on allocatesmartly could probably be built on P123, but if they were offered as DMs they would quickly get lost in the hundreds of current offerings.

Also, I would like to see affiliates get 10% of DM revenues for authors willing to give up 10% to have others market their models. I would love to market the best DM models but I won’t do it for free.

This is a big question and one that Marco and I have and will continue to be thinking about.

We learned at the start that there was a market for this sort of thing but as had been discussed heavily in the forum, version 1 was way too curve-fitting friendly, and as many models faltered the way such models eventually do, subscrbers vanished en masse.

One person in this thread mentioned cost. Yes, absolutely! Pricing by many designers is unreasonably high. A while ago I suggested that designers try to envision how much money a user might invest in designer models, imagine how many models, and how much they might attract. Then, multiply the monthly charge to infer an annual %. I’m not sure anyone did this because if they did, they’d be shocked into slashing prices.

I had also posted in the past about how designers present themselves and their models. Many had ridiculous names that not only failed to indicate what the model was about but were impossible to remember. And I’ve long believed that marketing that focuses on backtests, forgetting legal implications, is marketing suicide because everybody hots cold spells here and there and if you offer a client nothing more than an implied promise of great returns that match a great backtest, you have no chance to retain them unless they make the sort of money they envision from the testing. Backesting and simulation are p123 products — tools — for your own use as an aid to development of stratgies. That’ s what they are; tools for your private use. Results can not be used as products that can be sold to others unless you become super famous in which case they can be sold to collectors, like preliminary sketches by Rembrant.

We had hoped that when we sharply curtailed test presentations, designers would market themselves based on . . . themselves. After all, that is the “product” being sold. It means talking about the market, about how one approaches investing in general and stock selection in particular. It means conversation in the forums about substantive topics like that. It means blogging etc. in that manner on Seeking Alpha and hopefully in the future, on p123. Some folks have put themselves out there and have been developing public personas. More need to do likewise. Nobody subscribes to test results, but people will subscribe to individuals they see as authorities. A big reason why I wrote and posted the strategy design course was to help those whose professional backgrounds lie in other fields to learn how, not only to design professionally sound models but also to develop the idea inventory needed to project marketable authority.

This isn’t to say p123 was always in the right and has the perfect platform now. We weren’t. We aren’t. And we don’t. And we will be working to do better. We’ve also been thinking about newsetters and I’ve been wondering if maybe DMs might be superceded by subscription to some sort of designer (using the current label) content set that could established by the designer, which might include a newsletter, a systemic model along the lines of what we have now, or even ideas that are less systemic — the p123 platform can also be used to generate ad hoc ideas. Perhaps some combination, as the designer wishes (and we wlii need to replace the word “designer”j.

But I’m putting my shtick out there yet again because I know full well that there is nothing p123 can do to get $$$ for designers unless designers pitch in an do the things they need to do for themselves. Acronyms are popular so let’s try PPAPA . . . Proper Pricing And Projecting Authority. That doesn’t come over night, so I suggest designers start working along those lines now, while we do our thing. It would be great if we could all come together at more or less the same time.

Should I launch this model as a DM for $10 per month?

It should be useful to park one’s money if one is unsure where to invest. Higher annualized return than SPY, but with a max D/D= -3.3%. Shows gains for every calendar year and includes variable slippage…

Annualized Return (%) 5.95
Max Drawdown (%) -3.28
Standard Deviation (%) 2.75
Sharpe Ratio 1.56
Sortino Ratio 2.23
Correlation with Benchmark 0.09
R-Squared 0.01
Beta 0.02
Alpha (%) (annualized) 4.29


I will subscribe if liquidity is good, and slippage / turnover are low. Is the max drawdown in 2018-19?

Max D/D was in 2004.

Liquidity is no concern. The model has 75% of its funds in static investment of 7 fixed interest ETFs : MUB, VWOB, VMBS, SHV, VTIP, SHY, and IEI. The weighted average duration is 3.61 years, that is less risky than IEI which has a duration of 4.44 years. These 7 ETFs are only periodically rebalanced, never traded.

The other 2 ETFs which are switched according to market climate are VIG and UUP.

With nodays>45 the model’s return is 5.76% and max D/D= -3.29%, so very little effort is required to attend to this model. Looks like a money making machine to me.

Now that I provided all the info, anybody can replicate this model. I would like to see similar models from others.

Forgive me if I’m wrong, but from a quick look at this model, it appears to diminish drastically in percentage return every year. A straight line like this means that it’s not compounding at all. It looks like you’re getting 50% returns in the early years and 4% returns in the later years. I never thought it would be possible to construct a model whose graph looks like this, with logarithmically diminishing returns.

Here is the calendar year performance. Benchmark is IEI.
Also growth of $5,000.



Let’s bring this back to the topic of this thread; Ghost Models (why so many DMs have no subscribers).

As soon as I saw George’s initial post, I had assumed it was some sort of spoof. It was presented as a stock model (I inferred that from his use of the SPY benchmark) and as a stock model, all I could envision from an equity curve like that was Bernie Madoff. Hence I sat back quietly and watched for responses. This is a pretty good example of why DM has not been succeeding, after the initial days and when subscribers learned the hard way that carefully constructed backtests are not really investable for them.

George’s disclosure of the method (the tickers, the goal) completely changes the inquiry. Had the test initially been presented with a proper fixed income benchmark and a discussion of why he chose those fixed-income characteristics (had it been a real designer model, he could not have been expected to reveal specific tickers), I, as a prospective subscriber, would have been able to think rationally about it and whether or not it is consistent with what I expect going forward from this asset class. While the world doesn’t need and can’t expect the secret sauce, the world is going to need an understanding of what the designer is trying to accomplish. George’s first presentation delivered the message “hold on to your wallet, run far and run fast.” The information he added (even without the exact ticker) changed the game and provoked the sort of rational thought process a DM subscriber should be expected to pursue.

I think we’re now seeing why there are so many “ghost models.”

Mark and Yuval,
Thank you for your comments. The reason I chose SPY as the benchmark was to ask the question: which of those two performance curves do you prefer to but your money in? The obvious answer is the red one. Obviously one should use a fixed income ETF as the benchmark with similar duration as the model’s, like IEI.

But Yuval is correct, a straight line indicates diminishing returns over time. That is what has happened to savers in fixed income funds, they have all seen poor performance for the last 10 years. You need to have increasing returns per unit time. A log-plot of the performance curve should be a straight line with a positive slope.

Delete. I wish you all the best with this. There are probably better ideas than the one I deleted, however.

Hi Jim, If you’re willing to share, I’d love to understand how quickly you adjust your buy and sell bids and offers? How quickly are you able to move into and out of positions? I think that I’m probably slower than I should be in just “paying up” for a buy or “accepting” a lower price on a sell. I have had a few run away from me recently.

Michael,

I place a VWAP or Percent of Volume order for the total number of stocks recommended by the port in the morning. Market orders for small orders.

Any strategy I MIGHT develop would be the opposite of what Nisser outlines. If a stock is moving (eg a stock is increasing in price after a favorable announcement) I would speed up my purchases. I would want to finish my order before the stock moves higher. Maybe convert from 5%POV to 10%POV.

The opposite situation is when a stock is going lower. Do I want to put on a limit order and buy all of it when it hits the limit? Maybe. But maybe I want to slow the purchases and let it continue to go lower—getting an even lower price.

This is the strategy outlined in the books IF YOU BELIEVE THE PRICE TRENDS. I am inclined to think stock price moment is generally random over shorter periods BUT who can deny that stocks will move in one direction after an announcement: for the whole day or even a week or two. A few stocks never come back at all. Admittedly, a few. Those few “tail-events” seem to have a large impact on my returns.

If the movement is truly random it does not matter what I do anyway. I think trading reversion to the mean will work for some ports but there is a lot of work needed for that timing. And probably requires more smarts/patience than I have.

Even if I rebalanced every quarter, I would look at a new set of stocks a week later—in another port or something. I would not be chasing week-old information. But I don’t watch yesterday’s news on TV either—could be just me.

That is what I would consider as a strategy. In truth, I put the order in in the morning and watch. Never changing it—not really a strategy.

But at the end of the day when the accounting is done, I do beat the sim (or port on auto) and the more trades I make the more I beat it.

-Jim

Then I guess we’re trading on entirely different planets, because that doesn’t work 100%.
I keep track of all my attempted sell/buy orders. In 2018 I made 65 attempts with about 10% of them running away from me (Following about 3-4 systems with low turnover). Some tank and are losers, others are winners but I have no reliable way of predicting which is a loser and which is a winner. Some initial tankers make a U-turn and become winners and vice versa.

I do not have time to watch and adjust orders throughout the day. In fact, I can’t even wait to see what happens at the open as I’m a west-Coaster and I need to…go to work!

I set my orders on Sunday based on previous close.
Close to minus 0.5% for sell orders
Close to Plus 0.5% for buy orders
I make them for the entire week and I do not adjust. About 70% of them go through on Day 1. Others are filled throughout the week, or not at all

I cringe at the thought of my transactions quadrupling or more. There’s no reason to believe that the ratio of run-away orders would decrease.

If owners of DMs are intending followers to monitor open prices, adjust, watch, calculate VWAPs, etc…then it’s absolutely no mystery to me that there’s so little interest in current DMs. You have to understand your target audience.

Maybe just different ports with different liquidity or different expected returns for each purchase. Thank you for sharing your experience!

-Jim

Hello,

Lot’s of great points mentioned but the most important reason is the probability of selecting a DM that will perform well Out of sample. This is a very difficult choice and knowing what is under the hood is important but there is one more thing that greatly influences the decision. The reputation of the designer. My numbers are not exact but since the first 2 years of DM launched there are only 30 models that have positive excess return over the last 2 years out of 120 total. I’m sure the numbers are not much different since inception. If you were to include the grave yard the numbers would be magnified 2 or 3 times. Let’s say a designer has launched 10 models since 2013 and has retired 8 with bad performance and 2 are left from 2014. In 2014 there is no way for me to decide which of the 10 DM to invest in since I have no way of knowing which ones work. Fast forward during that time period the designer launches another 5 models that have great back tests but very little OS performance. Would you invest in any of the new five models if you knew the same designer has retired 8 that don’t work? The point is as a Designer you hurt your credibility by retiring models that don’t work. I’m not sure how to fix this since no model is perfect but since the vast majority of models fail it is really hard to pick a DM with a high probability of future success. I think the Designers who are successful will have 50% of there models beating the market over the long term and this will be combined in a book explaining the strategy of how these DM will beat the market over the long term. If the strategy does not work deleting it is not the solution since your credibility is gone just like the deleted model.

Regards,
MV

d

“In 2014 there is no way for me to decide which of the 10 DM to invest in since I have no way of knowing which ones work. it is hard to pick a model with high probability of future success”

Well, it is not only 2014, it is ALWAYS. What you are looking for is a nice wish but an illusion.
NO model and no parameter will give you a guarantee, not even a “high probability” that a model (or any model) will result in future financial success.
Otherwise the whole game would be easy.