This was my first full year with a P123 portfolio. Overall, very satisfied with the performance of my P123 account. I was invested ~60% up until sometime in March, ~90% up until October and since then 100%. I try to truly quantify with many strategies and stocks, so I’m holding 140+ stocks in my portfolio. On average the account weight has been 1/3 Europe, 1/3 USA and 1/3 Canada.
The result for the year was 38.66% in SEK. The SEK was break even for the year against EUR and CAD but lost 8% against the US Dollar. Worst month was August -1.06%, best month November with 4.91%. The statistic from my broker shows a 1-year Sharpe of 3.24 and volatility of 8.43%. Largest DD was 8.32% in August (both the market was down, and the SEK got stronger).
I’m particularly pleased with the low volatility in the portfolio, with this low volatility I know I will be able to stick with my strategies over the long term. I see many P123 users that trade with accounts with only 15-20 stocks. I have many Live Paper trading strategies with 15-20 stocks that I’m keeping an eye on, most of them are showing ok results, but with the volatility some of them is showing, I would not be able to sleep at night if that would be my live broker account, so I know I will never trade with so few stocks on my account.
I just recently introduced an AI strategy to my live account and will probably replace an old model that I can see is overlapping a lot with other “classic” strategies with more AI strategies this year. I have paper traded 4 AI strategies since August, and they have all outperformed my other live strategies, so I’m very excited about that.
Very, very good job!
About the same performance here (but more vola!).
My AI models add diversification (they pick about 50% different stocks than my trad. stuff), put them in a book and see performance... still not trading them, but will probably through some capital on them soon
Also trade about 40-50 Stocks in one book...
Andreas
I'm a retail investor and trade mostly microcaps. This is the 1 year chart of a live port that I use in my my main retirement account I trade with P123. 25 US stocks. This wasn't a completely static live model out of sample, because I changed mid year from equal weighting to a dynamic weighting.
This is the 1 year chart of an live port account in my taxable brokerage that I try to keep to < 400% portfolio turnover. In theory I might need to withdraw cash from this account if an unexpected life event calls on it, so this one blends in and out of cash depending on certain market and economic conditions and always holds a bare minimum of 10% cash and possibly up to 50% cash. I benchmark this against a 70/30 portfolio. I hold the cash in the $BOXX etf and get ~4% return with a tax advantage component.
This is a live port for a smaller retirement account model that I use with a blend of 30 North America and Europe companies. I just went live with this in April, so I don't have a full year's results, but it most consistently outperformed.
Obviously another very happy year and a satisfied customer. I had written off this year as an underperformance year and was okay with it because I had over performed since 2018 and felt I was probably due. Nothing was going right the first half of the year and every major holding was getting absolutely crushed on every earning's announcement. Then things started shooting vertical around the September Fed Rate Cuts and through the US election.
Goal for this year is to get more into the weeds with AI features. I was involved in beta testing and things were looking interesting, but life intervened and research/free time was scarce the second half of the year.
Another good year using P123 strategies. I've been running most of my strategies for 5 years now, with consistent performance (although highest in 2020 & 2021).
I now run 6 strategies (US & Canada). My US microcaps were lagging for most of the year, underperforming in 7 months of the year (compared to more discretionary stock-pickers), but had a strong boost in late Q4.
My strategies are equal weight (although I've experimented with formula weight), and I have not yet embraced the AI factors, but prefer to create as much value as possible from my current strategies and optimizing factors (and creating new ones), etc.
My US small-cap account achieved 45.57% return (50% share). With filter MedianDailyTot > 20,000 USD, turnover 250%, Sharpe 1.36, volatility 21%, MaxDD 10.89%. I also have another account in IB (20% share) for trading volatility and commodities.
My Polish small-cap account achieved (in PLN) 6.5% vs 5% WIG - broad index (30% share). Factset data does not help here with many stocks having delayed or missing financials.
US equities - I used a typical p123 all-weather(factors) type model based on ranking system, equally weighted portfolio. I can trade less liquid stocks. I often realized gains (short-term mean reversion) when stocks gained a lot in a short period. This year I hope to finish my ML system and then I will divide my capital.
Bad year for Polish equities in general. As long as Poland is a frontline country, Polish assets will be, ceteris paribus, relatively cheaper than comparable assets from other emerging markets, and cheaper than the pre-2022 averages. Interestingly, If I used the same model with universe of Swedish equities the performance could be somewhere at +25%. Therefore it is crucial to select European country right. Next year I will diversify my European portfolio.
My top (investable) European countries in 2025 with allocation share :
Spain (30%) and Greece (20%) - Highest forecasted GDP growth at ~2.3% (OECD/Eurostat) out of countries from southern Europe.
Poland (25%) - highest forecasted GDP growth out of 6 largest EU economies 3.4-3.6% (OECD/Eurostat). Huge EU-funded public investments are anticipated. Upside risk related to equity valuations if the war ends (hopefully this year).
Sweden (25%) - my top north European pick. Many socioeconomical problems here, but good long-term pick - new government and forecasted accelerating gpd growth. The one of the largest investable European universe with many high-tech start-ups.
I've been using P123 to drive my investing since 2015, and 2024 was the second year I underperformed the market. The first was 2019. The two years had a lot in common. In both, the S&P 500 returned over 25%, tech giants dominated the market, the Federal Reserve implemented rate cuts, there was low unemployment and strong GDP growth, and the environment generally favored risky assets. Cryptocurrencies and sports betting experienced major booms in both 2019 and 2024, and this risk-taking tendency was reflected in how soundly growth stocks trounced value stocks.
I still made money this year (I've never lost money in a calendar year since I started using P123), just not as much as most people did.
I manage a number of different accounts. My kids' accounts went up 87%, my wife's accounts went up 27%, my private foundation went up 18%, and I lost about 7% or 8% in my own personal accounts, though I'm not really sure of that because there were a huge number of deposits and withdrawals (I transferred most of my money to my hedge fund mid-year). I also manage a portfolio on dub (dubapp.com) called "Boring and Soaring" that went up 63% (you can invest in that one and automatically copy my trades), and a couple of other accounts that went up 57% and 15%. So it was a mixed bag for me. What really hurt me the most were my hedge (put options), European stocks, currency drag (especially Canada), high transaction costs, and the fact that I invest in safe and boring stocks in a period that favored unsafe and sensational stocks.
Every stock port I funded this year. Some are paper-traded now (not funded for the entire year). NAs were funded after the beiginning of 2024 as you probably guessed.
Any AI was done with Python in a Juptyer notebook:
This year I re-joined P123 after over a 10 year break. I only invested in one port that ran for most of the year - actually only from April. 30 positions small and micro cap. Very pleased with the results.
@rtelford , this is OUTSTANDING! If you would like to give me some coaching on how you got these results I am happy to pay for a call please. Your 2022 result in particular is magic.
Regards
Rod
I am satisfied with the returns, but I dislike the volatility in the portfolio this year.
I have two portfolios, each containing 15 stocks. Half of the investments are in the USA and Canada, while the other half is in Western Europe. This year, I have achieved a 31% return for the US and Canadian portfolios and 34% for the European portfolio. However, I have been fully invested for 2 years, and with some luck, I have accumulated a total return of 98%. The volatility is 19%, and the Sharpe ratio is 1.22.
Mistakes:
It is excessively expensive to trade from Norway. Combined with the fact that I trade too frequently and unnecessarily, I have changed my strategy (RS) twice this year, and did also shift from an equal weight approach to a dynamic weighting strategy and then back to an equal weight approach. Additionally, I have not been fully invested the entire time, so I am satisfied overall, but I am frustrated by mistakes that I should avoid. There is almost an 8-10% difference (OoS) in the returns from my live strategies on P123 and my actual portfolios that need to be managed manually.
Next year:
I am considering increasing the total number of stocks to reduce volatility and modifying the purchase threshold to decrease turnover in the portfolio. However, I have not yet managed to do this without affecting the returns in backtesting to much.
I also have some AI strategies that perform reasonably well, but they are not better than my own ranking systems. Furthermore, these strategies do not have low enough correlation compared to my other approach, so I see little benefit in running two strategies that are highly correlated overall.
It was my second year using Portfolio123 and my return was a lot better than 2023, 40.8%, quite nice.
That's for a long-only portfolio of 16-20 stocks from the Easy to Trade North Atlantic universe.
It's only been 3 months since I invested with P123. It is still a little early to draw conclusions, but I am very happy with the tools available. As Jrinne says: "P123 is doing some great stuff and should have something for just about anybody no matter what methods they are using". I think exactly the same thing.
I have been investing since 2000 and have followed a purely quantitative approach since 2020. Since it's real money, I'm looking to maximize gains while keeping volatility under control. So the Sharpe ratio is my friend.
My reference currency is the Swiss franc. Its historical strength against all other currencies weighs heavily on the return obtained on my investments abroad, which are the majority. This year however, for once, the CHF lost value against the dollar, which helped me.
Over the three months that I used P123, I obtained an annualized return of 26.6% on my real (invested) portfolio with a Sharpe ratio of 1.94 (in daily data). This seems to be following the trend of what I had before P123 so far. I am already feeling additional positive effects, which will need to be confirmed over the coming months.
For now, like Whycliffes, I see little benefit from using AI. For me too, AI strategies do not work better than my own systems. Maybe I haven't fully understood how to use it yet.
Thanks! This year I tried the ASK, a special account we have in Denmark where the tax is only 17%, but the downside is that you can only invest in certain papers from an approved list. Foreign small cap is often not a possibility. I figured 17% was better than 42% even though I often could not buy the top-ranking stocks. But in August I realized I was losing money on the ASK so now I do not think about taxes and just try to get as good a return as possible. My return would be above 60% without the ASK, even though this number is anecdotal, it is quite a difference.
Thank you all very much for sharing your results, it's inspiring!
My 3 strategies for the full year showed the following results:
Strategy 1 +24.24%
Strategy 2 +31.11%
Strategy 3 +30.11%
In June, I opened a new account and launched another strategy similar to strategy 2. It showed + 30.50% since June
On the one hand, I am driven by the desire to improve or change something, on the other hand, I tested the strategy for almost 2 years and chose number 2, which suits me best in terms of liquidity, volatility and profitability.
What do you think, is it better to leave what works or constantly develop and improve the strategy? What approach is the best in your opinion?
Thank you all! I wish all p123 participants even better results next year!
This was my second year using P123 and I have to say I'm very pleased with results thus far. I echo what Jrinne and others have said, it does seem to have something for everyone. I returned 45.43% in 2024 in my main strategy.
This was entirely in US tax deferred retirement accounts and mainly in small/micro caps. I'm still trying to wrap my head around how best to utilize this strategy in a taxable account given turnover and short term capital gains. Definitely more to learn on that front. Appreciate all the work that's being done here!
IB uses an alternate exchange to trade in Norway rather than the main Oslo exchange. If you use a different broker it's not at all expensive to trade in Norway.
The account is an IRA in withdraw mode. There is a 15% policy allocation to cash. The universe is a liquidity constrained NOOTC one and i Manage with a definite tilt towards limiting drawdowns.
Total return was 7.39%. The worse drawdown (post election) was 7.88%. The beta when compared to the Russell 2000 was 0.59 and the alpha was 1.67%.
A rough year to stick to my process. I was underwater till early May and it took to early August to be profitable for the year.
This year marked my first full year as a subscriber since joining in 2023, and I couldn't be happier with the experience. While the first half of the year presented its challenges, the second half saw the strategy roaring back with remarkable results.
I’m deeply thankful for all the effort and dedication that goes into this incredible solution. It's truly inspiring to see such a powerful tool made accessible to retail investors. I genuinely appreciate the hard work of everyone (p123 team as well as forum contributors) who contributes to its success.
I’m also considering upgrading my subscription to access the AI features—not immediately, as I’m still building capital, but mainly as a way to support the amazing work the team is doing.
Thank you once again for your commitment and innovation. I’m excited to step into 2025 with confidence and look forward to seeing what the future holds.
As for me, a bad year. Less than breakeven with my portfolio123 account strategies (thankfully my passive ones saved me). I have been mainly following a designer model which badly behaved for most of the year but was ok in 2023.
Due to personal situation changes, I changed my mind on risk asset allocations as I felt less inclined to risk, and honestly found it too hard to stick to only one strategy going bad when the apparent market is up, so I switched part of the allocation when I should not have. I believe I made the worst behavioral and timing decisions one could.
I have now decided to smooth out volatility by diversifying in between strategies (mix of mine, as I now have more time, and designer).
