https://imarketsignals.com/bci/
https://www.portfolio123.com/fed_model.jsp
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p67700809413&a=203320456
The macrocharts one is interesting.
My guess is that the Black Swan event for emerging markets (which China is still lumped in with) is Trump’s trade war. It was totally unexpected and like any war, economic or military, will have, in the future, unexpected twists and turns. No one expected in 1935 that Germany would be economically wiped off the map just 10 years later in 1945. Will this current trade war have similar devastating consequences for either the current players or other currently unassociated countries? Adam Smith wrote the Wealth of Nations in 1774 to talk about trade wars and their terrible consequences. History is repeating itself. Emerging markets are the canary in the coal mine for this. I don’t think we have seen the true consequences yet for US or other countries earnings.
Hi Andreas,
In what I’m tracking for economic indicators I have several things flashing yellow and overall am in a cautious but invested state. But do have one component that’s in the “red zone” right now: Intermodal Rail Traffic. It’s been maxed out since May for me.
Probably the #2 factor that’s at a middling concern level is Industrial Production
But lots of other things look fine, so there’s positives balancing things out too.
edit: added image of what the econ tracker looks like now
Watch the Unemployment Rate, currently 3.7%.
If the November rate is 3.9% (to be reported on 12/6/2019) then my UER model will signal the next recession.
Since 1948, for 11 recessions, the signal would have provided a max lead time of 21 weeks, and a minimum lead of -13 weeks (late signal), and an average lead of 2 weeks.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4290145-unemployment-rate-signal-recession-update-september-5-2019
So I am not so sure about a “Pretty cool bull case!”.
Andreas, your own Beta indicator (when Hi-Beta stocks perform better than Lo-Beta stocks the model signals investment in the stock market, otherwise investment in bonds) is currently in fixed income since 8/12/2019.
This indicator was brought to our attention by Andreas Himmelreich who noticed that it correlated well with his 5-stock portfolios, e.g. when high beta stocks were doing well, his portfolios went up in value, and otherwise it under-performed. (It’s all on the forum if you care to search.) So how is this portfolio performing lately?
high beta 5 Stock ports are doing very badly 
a 0.2% uptick in unemployment would be a huge miss and of cause a big hit to nearcasting recession modells…
Lets see how things develop, so far Iam Long and my strat is adding stocks…
Thanks Andreas keeping us informed. Your high beta model’s performance confirms the Beta-Timer’s signal.
Hi Georg and Andreas,
From Georg’s reference to Andreas’ High-Beta model, I wonder if this is a publicly viewable model? If so, I would appreciate a link. I couldn’t find it from searching. Thank you.
Also, I am curious why the email links for all members have disappeared from our profiles? For years, one P123 member could contact another privately to ask a basic question such as the one I just asked. It seems rather wasteful – in terms of space and distraction from the primary subject – to use a forum post to ask a simple question like the one I just asked when it could be asked privately (and the thread can stay on the subject).
When we could contact one another, I always welcomed messages from other P123 members – and that capability actually enabled the formation of some excellent, long-term friendships that I value highly. Please bring it back (or let us know a good reason why it was removed)! Thank you.
Chris
This will be fixed on Monday. The removal was inadvertent.
ATHs, Just saying
ok, lets get real:
hedgeye calls quad3 (gdp slowing, Inflation rising) for the 4th quater 2019.
Those guys are Pretty good, recommend the Webcast.
Also they helped me in bettering my trading Systems.
I put Quality in my ranking System and at the same time Industry Momentum and I got to tell you
it worked “Wonders”, especially I was able to add to the volumne filter (e.g. the System now picks more
liquid stocks even with better Performance then my old one with less liquidity).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ht8BeyhQKPc&feature=emb_logo
Very good video on why we are mid cycle and why the best is in front of us!!!
So if (and only if) your modells tell you to stay long, be brave 
Best Regards
Andreas
Best Regards
Andreas
Some interesting data comparisons in his charts. We shall see in 2029 how much they are worth
Andreas,
For Industry Momentum, I been exploring PE expansion. For me it’s Momentum expressed via Sentiment.
Here are a couple of possible implementations;
-
FMedian(“PEExclXorTTM”,#Industry)/FMedian(“PEExclXorPTM”,#Industry)
-
FMedian(“PEExclXorTTM/PEExclXorPTM”,#Industry)
I use the first expression.
You may also want to experiment with;
FMedian(“ProjPENextFY”,#Industry)/FMedian(“ProjPECurFY”,#Industry)
Walter
PS Higher is better when used in a ranking system
Hi Walter,
I try it out, thank you!!!
Best Regards
Andreas
ATHs, just teasing
Again ATH, this gets really scary…
Opinions on the market?
It is a bit scary. Especially with several of my holdings reporting earnings this week; ROKU, PERI and VERU. Opened a small short position on the QQQs.
Walter
same here, not easy to follow your model in that teflon market…, lets see…
Most of my Models have Adaptive Allocation across uncorrelated Assets. Conservative Portfolios are 80% hedged with Bonds and Gold. Aggressive portfolios are 60% hedged with bonds and gold. The models are very conservative at this point in time. The Nasdaq is highly extended from it’s MA(50). Usually this signals a correction is coming soon. Time will tell if this was a good choice to Hedge so much of maybe I am leaving money on the table.
Do you hedge with gold and bond call options? That’s what I do, but somewhere around 50% coverage.