Seeking Alpha

The following Google Search Shows activity from p123 members that post articles on seeking Alpha

portfolio123 site:http://seekingalpha.com/

Is it ok to post there p123 related articles also regarding to r2g Portfolios (for example the free ones)?

I am intrested because of the following reasons:

  1. Traffic for p123 (the “butter and bread” ports of p123 are doing great, why not “chitchat” about it there)
  2. Traffic for (my) r2gs
  3. Build up a (p123 related) Reputation
  4. I really like to write about stock trading Systems and their picks (mixture of Systematik and discreationary trading).

Before I make a mistake, I better ask.

Thank you!!!

Regards

Andreas

I think promotion like that is a good idea. I’d encourage all R2G designers to consider doing it.

But before doing so, I have an important cautionary note for anybody who wants to go this route:

Be aware that their forums can be considerably less friendly than ours, and that readers do tend to pay attention to comments (which tend to be more substantive than the nonsense you see on Yahoo!), enough so that a wave of negative comments could essentially cancel out any hopes of positive exposure/branding. And there are readers on Seeking Alpha who are very suspicious of anything that seems like optimization, curve fitting, and data mining. If you do write on Seeking Alpha I very strongly recommend that you keep discussion of simulated results to a bare minimum and talk instead about the ideas behind your approach. (Actually, this is something I hope R2G designers would do more of here, in descriptions and in forums. But here, those who discuss extensive simulation analysis tend to fit in with the crowd. Don’t count on that outside p123. You may get lucky, but if you do get nailed by somebody jumping on curve fitting, etc., it ay take only one to start a wave.)

Agree with Marc. If you want to get good/expected results with reasonable cost/efforts you need strong background/infrastructure.

As for Andreas idea… I thought it is no question, I saw a lot of articles on SA and the web linking to www.portfolio123.com with user reference. So I thought there is some referral program exist!? And I was surprised not to be forwarded directly to referring user/designer landing page.

There was talks/requests about R2G comments - in the current state communication facility is insufficient like most of R2Gs descriptions. Why not to give every designer at least a thread on the forum instead of ugly limited R2G comments? Ideally there could be blog for designers to put his findings out easily. And I want to be subscribed to all the news, comment/revisions of R2Gs I am watching/subscribed to.

And as for Marc caution… Isn’t it the better alternative just to stop with a reasonable optimization and disclose it openly in line with model trading related specs involved into simulation? i think there is an additional value to R2G in such a disclosure.

Marc, once upon a time there were Blogs ( http://www.portfolio123.com/blog.jsp ). While still accessible it seems are hidden (can’t find link on the site) now. Are there valuable information not included into help section?

If you want to write about an optimization, nobody will stop you. But the arguments I make in the forums against it are not, as some have suggested, simply a matter of personal preference. In the investment world at large, pure optimization is very much looked down upon.

This is the downside of p123 being a limited-access community. I may be outnumbered in forum discussion, and sometimes I can come off as a bit of crank (or maybe a whole lot of crank). But that’s not so in the outside world (it’s not that I’m always flowers and sweetness, as if I ever could be, but the things that get me riled there related to different topics. :slight_smile: . You won’t find outside forums populated by familiar people and are instead likely to find yourself surrounded by many who think exactly the way I do on this issue and who may not be at all that shy about expressing themselves in hostile or demanding ways. (Seeking Alpha forums are moderated, but you can get away with quite a lot of negativity before something is taken down.) In fact, I have, at times, jumped into SA forums to defend the approaches of some modelers, including some from p123, who were attacked for data mining even when they were not guilty of having done it.

Nobody can be sure of who will see or comment on any particular article (unless it’s on AAPL or AMZN), so you might post an article promoting an optimized R2G and get by with it. But you are putting yourself at risk for a lot of ugliness depending on who sees it and how ornery they’re feeling that day.

And the more I think of it, the more seriously I encourage ALL R2g Designers to spend time reading SA articles and looking through comments. As you know we are overhauling R2G and we do want to make it easier for you to attract a broader range of customers. While that is being worked on, it may be wise for R2G designers to use the time to familiarize themselves with how investors outside the p123 community think, what they want, and hopefully, get a sense of what they’ll pay you for.

As to blogs, it was tough to maintain that on p123 alone. So lately, I’ve been writing on outside sites (SA and others). But we do have blog overhaul in our to-do list, and in a way that will give p123 members opportunities to also write.

A couple of months ago Marco indicated that P123 members writing articles on Seeking Alpha could be considered “Professional”. Same goes for blogging. It was suggested that such professionals could be required to pay a (possibly very expensive) licence to P123’s data vendor. Now I presume that if P123 is not mentioned in blogs or Seeking Alpha articles then there should be no problem. But there should be some clarification regarding what we can and cannot do.

Steve

OK - I went back and found the post. Looks like writing for Seeking Alpha is OK.

https://www.portfolio123.com/mvnforum/viewthread_thread,8009#41130

My $0.02.

Andreas, does excellent research and understands the fundamentals very well. He certainly uses backtesting but his Ports are based on sound fundamental principles. He has real world experience and documented out-of-sample performance at P123. I certainly appreciate his posts. I do not think he discusses optimization too much.

He can hold his own at Seeking Alpha and they will be lucky to have him.

[quote]
stop with a reasonable optimization and disclose it openly
[/quote]Saying this I didn’t mean to write or not to write about optimization. I mean do optimize model to the extent while writing about this will not compromise you. If your risk tolerance (to response) is low, then do not optimize.

That’s great. My caution was addressed for the R2G community at large. In most cases, I’ve seen nothing said about strategies other than test results. If that’s done on SA or elsewhere, it could lead to bad things (image-wise). If Andreas, or anyone, explains ideas in a sensible manner relevant to investors, successful test data could serve well to support the model. I’ve done that often on Sa and elsewhere, including the 5/256/15 issue of Forbes Magazine.

Yes, when we talked about the policy, we made darn sure to frame it such that members would feel comfortable writing on Seeking Alpha and other places like that. It’s more than OK. It’s a terrific thing, and as R2G accommodates a broader potential customer base, I think it will be a very valuable part of a designer’s marketing strategy. That’s why I encourage people to spend some time on Seeking Alpa and learning the ways of that community.

Here’s an important tip.

Seeking Alpha will publish articles on models, strategies, etc., but if you want decent traffic, or even any traffic, you need to be focusing on individual stocks, enough so to justify editors’ willingness to identify your articles with primary ticker. Now personally, I absolutely HATE this aspect of Seeking Alpha and have argued with them repeatedly about their lack of appreciation for strategic articles in general (like I said, they’ll publish them, but they’ll scroll off the home page in an hour or so and then be impossible to find). Unfortunately, this is the way financial media is. It sucks. But it’s what we need to live with.

So in a sense, I almost should take back my cautions about writing about optimization. Getting blasted by commenters may be the least of your problems. If you write that way, pretty much nobody will find your article or read it except for p123 friends with whom you share links.

They key: DON’T TRY TO SELL YOUR MODEL; SELL YOURSELF (and of course you would promote your model(s) in your profiles and whenever you can mention them in passing in your articles).

You really need to be talking about stocks if you want to get traffic to your articles. While the big names (AMZN, AAPL, GOOG, etc.) will always draw, note that small cap does particularly well on Seeking Alpha, and income does super well. So I suggest you write about stocks in your models that particularly appeal to you – explain what you like and why. Less sexy big names can also draw traffic. And by all means, you can write about stocks you hate – bears gain followings. This is a challenge for those who rebalance weekly. So it’s a heck of a good reason to ditch the weeklies and emphasize 4- or 13-week models. You may not get the alphas you can get with 5-dayh (although that’s a loaded statement anyway; I p[refer 4 weeks), but longer rebalancing intervals create better opportunities for you talk about stocks (i.e. they won’t be gone by the time an article gets through the editing backlog and up onto the site).

If you don’t feel comfortable analyzing and talking about individual stocks, use the time available to you while the R2G project is underway to practice. I suggest practicing in the forums. Write posts on stocks. Ask for feedback. I’ll help if anyone wants.

Once you build SA followers by writing about stocks and having people who like what you wrote click to follow you, you then have the luxury of getting a bit more strategic since your followers will always be able to easily find whatever you write.

SA has a bunch of contributors that post actual results of their stock picks. I cannot find the article that shows you how to do this but I believe this would add a lot of credibility to your articles if you decided to publish. Has anyone else seen this?

Mark V.

There is a huge and sometimes contentious dialogue going on in the Contributor’s Forum about an SA plan to publicly track contributor performance. I’m not sure if it’s reached the point where SA is going forward yet (if so, I hope they listened because they had some really dumb ideas, such as not giving contributors opportunities to close out recommendations when it’s time to sell). What you might be seeing are manual efforts by some contributors to do it on their own.

Sorry, I was on the road three days, therefore my late Response.
Jim, Marc Thank you for all the great Feedback, expecially to pinpoint to subjects where you get traffic and to be Aware of the “Shit storm sharkes” and their sensitivity on optimizing.
Thank you for beeing able to do so.

What I plan to do (a Long term plan, righ now I am still in my main Job, that should Change in 2-5 years) is to hit the main subjects (e.g big names like Amazon etc.) and to pinpoint to the modells here.

“Amazon is a part of Modell XYZ because of its momementum” (then explain momentum refering to good academia sources) and then ad fundamental and technical insight on why amzn is a good (or bad) stock. So blending a systematic Approach with a

Add backtest on averaging in on a model, trading a modells capital curve (e.g. capital curve momentum trading etc.), Position sizing etc.

Also discuss models that are fully exposed (White Modell r2gs would be nice for this), so the Reader gets insight on how to build modells etc. etc.
Rank discussions (why did XYZ drop in momentum etc.)

Of cause always with linking both communities (e.g. publish a link to the article here)

Also I think of putting those articles in “Frameworks” authoring some work can be automated and the articles can be produced
efficiently (I know there is thin line here)…

Stuff like that :slight_smile:

Regards

Andreas

Andreas,

It sounds like a generally good plan.

While you’re on your main job, though, you may want to take some time to get familiar with the SA community. AMZN is a good example. No matter what fund/tech matters you raise in your main article and however sound your points may be, you’ll still need to be prepared for the posts that will attack any AMZN article that doesn’t urge readers to go short. The issue, of course, is the low earnings and high PE. In my opinion, the critics generally are not able to rise able the most basic for-dummies level of analysis. But be that as it may, you’ll need to spend some time wrestling with them on the boards, not so much to persuade them (that will never happen) but to impress others, especially silent lurkers, that you know your stuff and that you can meaningfully stand up for your ideas. That’s the sort of thing that can hep you build followers and eventually attract subs to your R2Gs. Each of the big-name stocks has it’s own narrative I’m the comments, and that is where you get the chance to really present yourself.

It sucks that it is this way. Frankly, I do wish it were possible to build a brand on SA without having to wrestle with the crazies in the big names. But Seeking Alpha sees itself as crowd-sourced investment ideas, so much so that they’d be perfectly fine publishing a dumb analysis and letting debate among the crowd flesh out its true merits or lack thereof. I got fatigued with it which is why my SA volume now is way down. Some of this situation traces to SA itself (dominance by product people and journalists who see stocks only as sources of actionable news) and some due to their loss of Yahoo syndication.

But again, be careful about discussion capital curves etc. for models. One thing I’ve done that works is make the main part of the article a discussion of the stock only and just mention the model through which you found it. Then, in a clearly marked “Appendix” at the bottom of the article, you can discuss the strategy itself, bearing in mind my earlier remarks about the need to discuss strategy instead of relying solely on test results.

I discovered P123 last year while investigating dividend growth companies via Seeking Alpha. Two authors I started to follow on SA both had links to P123 next to their profile names. So thanks to Arie Goren and Kurtis Hemmerling.

I have also considered writing for SA. I’ll be launching a RTG model (my first) very soon focused on very high liquidity large caps with a special focus on value, GARP and dividend growth. I would like to write about new and ongoing issues the model is holding and explain some tidbits on why the model selected an individual holding and why it’s a good fit for a long term investor. This particular model has very low turnover and in some cases holds stocks for many years. I constructed the model with SA and P123’s RTG redesign in mind.

Lastly, I would also be interested in the P123 referral program. But that doesn’t appear to be on the site anymore… perhaps I’m just not seeing it. What is the procedure to get signed up?

Marc, thank you for your lead here, sounds great, will follow your direction, lets see if I wrestle them down :slight_smile:

I second Chris’s Question for the referal program…

Regards
Andreas

We don’t have that referral program any more, but a revised version is in the hopper.

Thanks Marc, i’ll keep an eye out for the updated version. Do you expect it to roll out with the RTG changes that are in the pipeline?