Stock Picking Contest 2020?

[kumar]

Seven sister,

use XLE for timing and buy the best growth stock in the oil industry VLO.
VLO is went from $40 to $120 = 300% return between 2016 to 2019.
even someone catches one third of the move 100% in 3 years; still he will be better than average investor.

===============================================================
Fortune is made on growth stocks not on indexes/sector.
To protect the fortune need to follow the sector footprint for the appropriate investment condition.
VLO is come down to $40 in March 2020 from $120 July 2020 peak

Please, help to refer VLO chart in my previous post in this forum thread.

Thanks,
Kumar

[kumar]

Chipper6
Good results! Did you pick the stocks for the contest based on charts?

Chipper6, I did choose the stocks for the contest based on charts alone in 2018 and failed to perform.

I use growth fundamentals earnings and some fundamental filters around 10 criteria.
I did not do technical filters; but the charts are looks great as i filtered. except few stocks.

I believe fundamentals are to filter the candidate to 50 to 100 stocks symbols. can be used p123 tools.
then home work to do pick the 20 stocks using past experience and grow as investor every year.

Chipper6 you are more experienced, believe you might of better process and stock selection method.
If don’t mind, please help to share only the process.

Thanks,
Kumar

[Chipper6]

Kumar, you’re doing pretty good for yourself.

Personally, I find that because I used to read many stock writeups that were written by good value investors (for example on the Value Investors Club site) I have an edge in developing good value based systems.

I apologize, but I am not sure that I understand what you wrote, so please allow me to summarize what I think you wrote, and let me know if I got it right: Did you use charts by itself for the 2018 contest, but then used charts in conjunction with fundamental earnings growth and other fundamentals for the 2019 and 2020 contests?

[kumar]

Chipper6,

I have already spent around 10 years on value investing. may be holding time required to be 10-20 years for value investing.
Can you find any value based midcap/largecap ETF or mutual fund which outperformed QQQ or SPY for last 5 years.

1. my first DM system is pure value factor which 52 weeks low (in ranking).
2. my second DM systems is relative strength with all value factor which will buy 6 month high (in ranking).

I have spent few hundreds of hours to design my value designer models. In simulation obtained 67% winning percentage with 2:1 win loose ratio on SP500 universe. on both these 2 systems.
the system is developed over 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 period in iteration for improvement; but not able to get out performance better than SP500 in out of sample.

Then i learned growth investing from William O’Neil followers and some others; Need to be in best industry and best sector in order to invest in growth stocks;

I grasped some ideas from p123 forum.
Like SteveA(SectorInspector) implement 2 models;

1. Cloud technology model (technology sector is top performing sector for last 4 years), cloud is next generation software development. Salesforce CRM, MSFT, ADBE return more than 200% in last 4 years.
2. Aerospace and Defense model (Republican government will spend more money on these industries in government budget).

my 20 picks won 2017 competition all of the stocks are like AMZN, AAPL, GOOGL, CRM, MSFT, etc.,
last year 2nd with similar large cap names.

I am not applying technical explicitly; I am applying earning growths; I suggest value investor to learn growth investing.
even Mr.Warran Buffet holds AMZN, AAPL stocks. AMZN never had P/E < 50 for last 10 years it returned 10 times; AAPL P/E > 20 for last 3 years it returned 100%.

if i want to give suggestion to new individual investor; don’t focus on small cap and value stocks which may be for long term investor or professional investor who have access to the company in and out.

To invest in AMZN, AAPL, MSFT
i no need to do any research; and run simulation for hours. just aware of what the is company doing and whether it is growing it’s earning and revenue every year and every quarter.

Technical analysis will help you to enter and exit; but for this 2020 year competition; we need hold for 1 year period; i am visualizing using chart how the stock keep growing beyond 52 week highs.

Best of my knowledge value investor execute trade at 52 week low as buy point, 52 week high as sell point. to come-out from this behavior; it took me years. it is a transition to become a growth investor.

Thanks,
Kumar

[kumar]

performance as on June 10, 2020.

Thanks,
Kumar

---

[kumar]

performance for 2020 Q1 and Q2 as on June 30, 2020.

Thanks,
Kumar

---

[kumar]

performance as on July 31, 2020.

Thanks,
Kumar

---

[yuvaltaylor]

And the winners are:

Tied for first place: Kumar and Kiplinger’s, both with a return of 77.7%. Kumar specialized in mid-caps this year.

Third place: Walter (wwasilev), with a return of 45.7%.

Fourth place: Aaron (bompus)'s NASDAQ 100 picks, with a return of 41.6%.

Fifth place: Ryan (rtelford)'s small and microcap picks, with a return of 26.2%.

Hearty congratulations to all!

---

[rtelford]

Congrats everyone, and good show Kumar! I’m happy to come in the top 5!

Cheers,
Ryan

[Jim101]

This is now posted in the 2021 thread.

I’m in for 2021, although my strategies were not quite finished.

P123 Stock Picking Contest: 2021 Jim101(2)

Jim

[sevensisters]

Sevensisters,

I have attended a 2 days bootcamp from a 1981 Standford MBA graduate and he is full-time investor cum trader.
His sage advice is stay away from Energy and RealEstate. as these industries are heavily manipulated by supply and demand by many countries. It won’t follow financial data.
Instead of buying stocks; he suggested owning energy company and real estate property if you want to allocate capital on these assets.

Mr.Warran Buffet methodology is value investing. I am immersed and drowned in value investing for many years.
It is for big money and life time investing like 10 years and 20 years horizons.

For individual investor, growth is right way to go.
Here, I am attaching for reference, value is buy beaten down stocks. as individual investor i can’t turn the beaten down stocks but Mr.Warran Buffet’s money flow can in 5 to 10 years time.
I don’t have his capital and patience to move the stocks.

====================================
It took me 11 years to understand,

the world’s investment noise to public is opened with

(1) Either Mr.Warran Buffet, Mr.Peter Lynch, etc., kind of investing, buy and hold like forever 10 years and 20 years horizon.
15%- 20% avg return over 20 years time as a world’s greatest investment record for multiple decades without emotion keep investing on good fundamental companies.

(2) Or Day trader/ Weekly trader/ Monthly trader who keep buying and selling without knowing anything just following all the news and following Gurus who are making a living on selling books and giving training for novice investors as day trading experts.

(3) But, the successful secretive investors are living between these 2 extremes without making any noise to the public. 5% to 10% of the elite investors.

I did lot of mistakes like
following Mr. Warren Buffet stocks for few weeks, few months to 1 years holding. It is intended for multiple years.
following day trader ideas for holding multiple months and 1 year and burn down.

One have to define time frame and his stock picking and mindset should be stable as 12 months holdings.
should not get compared and compete with day trader or Mr. Warren Buffet (Life time holdings as buying home/gold ornaments).

It is extremely hard to get rid of old habits and believe on new concepts and build new successful habits; It will take time, even years.
Here, i am attaching 2 screens. By sharing this value stock (OXY) vs growth stock (SHOP),
Hope, I will follow my rules with discipline and emotional control by sharing knowledge to you.

============ Value Investing for last 10 years under performed growth investing by 50% attached IVW Growth and IVE Value Performance chart for reference ==========
OXY will be great performer in 10 years time, if not in 10 years, at least in 20-30 year times,
at worst case, even OXY got bank corrupt; as holding 50+ stocks, it is only 2% of my assets.
That is value investing and Mr. Warren Buffet ideas.
Never loose money by selling stock on scary environment.

SHOP is growth investing. best performing sector Technology, best performing industry Software. SHOP - Online shopping. in current environment work from home and stay at home.
This growth stocks even looks attractive. Growth Story strengthen Growth Stocks further.

SHOP is my top performing pick for this 20 stocks pick competition for this year year 2020.

Growth idea is 180 degree paradigm shift in thinking process.

Warren Buffett — ‘Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing’

It is applicable to me as well. I love to buy 52 weeks low and scare to buy 52 weeks high.
I am working on change my thinking process and attitude and go along and become comfortable to buy 52 weeks high and become successful growth investor.

All of my designer models are value based. I believed in value (Buy low and Sell High). but end up with Buying Low and Selling at Extremely Low as OXY chart.

while 2017, 2019 and 2020 my stocks picks are growth based manual picks. it performed better than most of the bench marks.

In 2018, i went with old habits picking bouncing stocks from 52 weeks low with good fundamentals and technicals. it performed worst than bench mark.

Writing journal is one of the best way to learn by one’s mistakes and one’s success.

As I am learning from your OXY energy stock experience.
I believe, my experience will helps you and others to learn as well.

YuvalTaylor ideas of this yearly stock picking competition makes me better investor over last 4 years period and stay aligning with 1 year sweet spot holdings.

Sorry, accidentally, i have attached the charts twice.

Thanks,
Kumar

Kumar,

I kept your above remarks in mind. Today I have a chart for you…

---