The exit rule from the stock market prior to recessions based on three rates is in P123 syntax:
LoopSum(“(SMA(5,CTR,##UST10yr)*5-SMA(5,CTR,##UST2yr))/(SMA(5,CTR,##UST10yr)4)=1.000",10,1,1)>=5 & loopsum("sma(20,CTR,##FEDFUNDS) < 1.00sma(100,CTR,##FEDFUNDS)”,10)>=5
The re-entry formula is a bit more complicated. Perhaps someone can do better than me. See Figure-2 in the article for the 1999-2020 performance of S&P500-Gold modeled in P123 which produced an annualized return of 17.7%.
That is the whole point of this timer. It is based on the yield curve getting inverted prior to recessions - 8-times since 1967, and 3-times since 1999.
Thank you for the code Georg! I’ve been trying to get the two halves of the sell rules to compute in Port123, but I can’t get the one half to run without an error. Any ideas on the error?
This runs ok → LoopSum(“SMA(20,CTR,##FEDFUNDS) < SMA(100,CTR,##FEDFUNDS)”,10) >= 5
Getting an error on this half → LoopSum(“(SMA(5,CTR,##UST10YR)*5-SMA(5,CTR,##UST2YR))/(SMA(5,CTR,##UST10YR)*4) < 1.000",10) >=5
I changed the = 1.000 to < 1.000 at the end of the original formula…
I’m looking to put together 4 or 5 different effective market timers to build a book with a very smooth low max DD equity curve…
Make sure all of your quotation marks are straight instead of curly, and that they’re all double quotation marks rather than 2 single ones. Perhaps that’s the reason for the error.