If we talk about people in general, some do not have a good system to begin with. Let me look at the Designer Models and see if that might not be possible sometimes. Not for all—just for some. Possible I think.
Even smart designers seem to be able to create some bad systems that do not need to be followed forever, I think. I have seen more than a few systems closed.
I think telling people to stick with systems no matter what happens may not be good general advice for this reason alone. There are some who will suffer from following (giving) that advice blindly. But….
There is a serious discussion about regime change. Pros handle it in different ways. Can regime change always be built into one model or always be planned for? Most of us do not have the resources of the hedge funds and they do not always handle regime change in an exemplary manner—even the ones that are still here. I going to say all of the ones who were not able ot adapt are gone.
You said you did a few things with the last drawdown that were good. I will leave it to you to elaborate/re-elaborate. I did too.
Maybe someone else can do it, do it better than I did and do it in their own way. I think there are a lot of people that do not need a lecture or even a pep talk from me.
If someone knows for certain that it is best for every person reading this to stick with the system they are using please be my guest and convince them to stick with their systems. I admire you for your psychic abilities. All I said was it is for everyone to decide for themselves based on any new information they may have.
Heck not only do they have new information, I generally do not have enough old information about their system to be telling them what to do.
Frankly, I do not know how anyone can speak about this generally—without specific information about a person and their ports, their leverage, their debt, their retirement horizon…… Plus, this is not over and I am not a fortune teller.
Anyway, I am not going to spend any time helping to formalize the official P123 position on this. I don’t need to be on that committee.
Sorry if I upset you. You’re correct, everyone should do what makes them comfortable and lets them sleep at night.
I hope you stay safe in all this. Same for everyone. I’ve had the flu the past two weeks and been locked out of my office by my landlord, the two softball teams I coach had their seasons cancelled, my kids are at home fighting with each other, and I am wondering what the markets and future hold for us.
So, i came back to p123 forums to talk about markets again and share some ideas. I love the data, screens, sims, series and it’s a valuable tool to me to understand, or try to, the markets.
It also helps me remember all the things I shouldn’t do…things I’ve tried in the past, and not stuck with.
I am not trying to lecture you or anyone in what they should do… I just have a lot of time on my hands. It’s a coping mechanism for me, and sometimes helpful for thinking out loud.
I am not upset. I am so glad you are posting again. That is actually how I am feeling.
I was probably lecturing, going on to long or making my point too strongly myself and I am sorry about that.
I truly believe you have some of the best posts and I am thankful for them.
What I truly feel strongly about is that we need more diverse opinions on the P123 forum starting with the opinions you have been presenting. I am truly upset if I am defeating my own purpose in this regard.
YES!!! Those are the sorts of images we need to see included with posts . . . as opposed to the vertical 1999-2019 backtested equity curves. Keep on looking at and thinking about things things like that (BTW, Tom. . . there are some panels that include Interest coverage; you may want to add that to your repertoire.) and when we start normalizing into the next regime, let the ideas you’ve been working with as you study data like that motivate your next generation mod models.
Nibbling is fine. Pros call it “averaging in” and for many, that’s the only way they do things.
What I’d find more difficult is the idea that people died needlessly because stringent enough measures weren’t taken. Staying at home for a couple of weeks or a month shouldn’t be seen as a great imposition. From some of the other forums I visit I get the feeling people aren’t taking it that seriously still offering up arguments on how flu is just as bad and how economic hardship combined with possibly increased suicide rates might make it a wash on the lives saved end.
Carnival Cruises – CCL
Saudi Sovereign wealth fund / Public investment Fund bought 8% stake this quarter and very cheap. Up 20% today… interesting bet. If they stay solvent till this ends, interesting play.