Practical Factor Research

Good afternoon everyone,

I'm a new user of P123, I don't really have a background in terms of stock picking and selection. I have played with the tool and read up to 2019 (from earlier) of Yuval's blog posts. I'm reading also MG guide on the website.

My question is practical. Could you kindly provide me with some guidance of how to effectively do factor research?

  1. I've thought that ideas can come up while reading 10Ks or 10Qs, maybe this is a good first step?
  2. Do you use the screen before tapping into factor specific research?
  3. Once you see that a factor doesn't seem to perform, how do you know if it could potentially be a good augmenting factor for others?

As you can probably infer, i'm a bit confused on the framework to employ. As of now i am running like a headless chicken trying to figure out how to conduct proper research. For the time being i've decided to stay away from AI. I believe that if you don't first grasp the broad concepts than AI usage is going to be highly detrimental.

An unrelated question, how many of you run strategies limited to a very particular universe - for example Mining or Staples stocks only? I guess it would be a bit easier to find something that works when dealing with comparable companies by definition?

Thank you

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  1. Download dan's list
  2. Put them into your ranking system
  3. Profits

No

No

Nothing should be done at all

An unrelated question, how many of you run strategies limited to a very particular universe - for example Mining or Staples stocks only? I guess it would be a bit easier to find something that works when dealing with comparable companies by definition?

No

For the time being i've decided to stay away from AI. I believe that if you don't first grasp the broad concepts than AI usage is going to be highly detrimental.

Yes

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Dan's list?

Just a few quick thoughts:
Restricting yourself to small universes (like sector-specific) is harder than using a big universe: it's challenging to properly test a ranking system if you only have a few hundred stocks to work with.

The best way to start finding ideas is probably to use the forums and some of the public ranking systems. The forums also have many discussions on the issues you raise.

Do not fall into the trap of optimizing a system by running a simulation with only 20-30 stocks, the resulting system is unlikely to work out-of-sample.

The screener is a vital part of working with factor research. There's so much you can do with it! Rolling tests in subsets of the full universe (using the mod(stockid)-method) works great. Lot of work though.

If you're starting completely from scratch there's a few books that could be useful. "How Finance Works" by Desai. "What Works on Wall Street" by O’Shaughnessy is a classic, but I don't think the strategies in it are any good anymore.

After you master the factor scripting language, read as many Seeking Alpha articles as you can, focusing on ideas that can be factorized.
You may want to join "The Value Investor's Club" website and do the same thing.

Read all of Yuval's blog posts.

Tony

Are you serious?

SA articles are always misleading, subjective and informationless. They are harmful to learning factors, especially for newbies.

If you want to create your factors, learn from Dan's list, especially the ranking of those factors in the list. It is much better than any online article. Only papers can be better.

Edit: If you actually want to learn factor investing from articles instead of papers or factor lists, AQR's researchs are the best materials.

Serious as a heart attack. You don't have to like the author's opinions or even agree with the author's conclusions, but many have fundamental analysis ideas that can be factorized. This assumes you can distinguish between ideas that make no sense at all and those that do, which most people using this service probably can.

What you're saying is the equivalent of saying it's very very very helpful ("as serious as heart attack") to go to a shithole ("Seeking Alpha", "the fundamental analysis ideas") and pick out grains when there's already gold. Most people would eat much more shit than grains in this way. The rest of them just have to get the gold and don't need to touch the shit. You even think what I disagree is only about their opinions and conclusions. No, their ways to analyze are even much worse.

Especially for the almost all newbie, it's better to not even read anything at all than to read something as intensely subjective and misleading as SA. People learn from things like SA almost all to learn how to be even much dumber.

After all, OP just want to learn factor investing. When you want to learn system/factor investing, any qualitative analysis is poisonous. Even Buffett's qualitative analysis is misleading enough, you would believe in insane things like "instrinct value", "Charles Munger is smart" and so on in this way. OP's zero experience is an advantage here because it means they haven't eaten too much shit in this field.

One other thing you can try...
Last year I published a Python script on here that would help extract factors from public rankingsystems. I think @Whycliffes used it to put a big list of factors together and made them available.

Tony

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@Lemming78 Here's my two cents. Fundamental factors are accounting semi-fictions, but they're the best thing out there. The only way to become familiar with them is to read other people who are also familiar with them. So books and articles that are strong in accounting are going to be good places to dig up factors. There are tons of academic papers published in accounting journals that will be useful. There are textbooks like those by Stephen Penman or Aswath Damodaran. There are free online courses offered by the Corporate Finance Institute and other free online accounting courses from Yale and NYU, I think. Many Seeking Alpha articles discuss accounting practices in a knowledgeable way (and many, as ZGWZ points out, don't). But in general, hunting this stuff down is difficult. Why are balance sheet accruals and cash flow accruals so different, and what sense does that make? Banks use the EBITDA-to-debt ratio to measure solvency, but there are plenty of other debt ratios out there (e.g. current ratio, quick ratio, debt to total assets, debt to free cash flow)--how good or useful are they? Do you have a solid understanding of why you use unlevered free cash flow with enterprise value and levered free cash flow with market cap or why an EBITDA-to-market-cap ratio wouldn't make sense? Do you understand why preferred dividend payments are subtracted from net income when FactSet or Compustat calculates earnings per share? If you're using the most recent quarter's ROA, what do you do about companies that report semiannually? Why are non-debt liabilities excluded from net operating assets? These are all thorny problems when dealing with the data available from Portfolio123.

In my opinion, just using a list of factors and letting a machine tell you which ones work and which ones don't can only take you so far. Even worse would be asking a machine to create new factors. Factors have to make sense in the world of accounting, because that's the only world in which fundamental factors exist. Factor investing is not and cannot be scientific (see the most recent P123 blog post). Too many P123 users try to create investing systems without understanding the accounting rules they're using.

Personally, I think that using a bunch of factors that you don't understand defeats the purpose of factor investing and will get you into hot water. Maybe I'm wrong.

But I am very glad of the question. Just the fact that you're asking these questions shows you're on the right foot.

To get to specifics:

Reading 10Ks and 10Qs is only useful when you know what you're looking for. It's time-consuming and deadly boring. It's necessary when trying to grasp how certain factors work, and it'll be homework if you're taking an accounting course. So it's secondary, not primary. But going through a few is a very good idea.

Screening is incredibly useful when doing factor research. I would use it hand-in-hand with whatever else you're doing.

If you see a factor doesn't work on its own, there's really no good way to know if it could be a good augmenting factor for others. You could plug it into a ranking system and see if there's an improvement. If it's not going to do you any harm, throw it into the mix and see what happens. The factor has to make sense to you, though. Avoid factors that don't.

Lastly, cast a broad net. Trying to focus on a specific industry is going to be very tough because there's simply not enough data to go by.

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From my experience, using the list of correct factors & their ranking to learn what is right and, what works and why some factors are right is the fastest. A.Y.Chen's paper suggests the best practice for further development is systematic machine screening of valid factors, which best reduces uncertainty. His paper found that factors with "why it makes sense" is not better or even may be worse than factors without much interpretation.

Thank you all. I will respond properly when i have a minute away from family duties.

I just have a lot to learn. For example, let's take inventories. Those are part of working capital and higher means lower ROA ceteris paribus. The issue is that i am inherently penalizing stocks that are doing very well in their industry but use higher inventories simply because of their business model. This will lead to higher allocation to low capital intensive sectors.

This May be good or not, but for the time being i try to account for the good and bad of each decision. One reason to move away from index funds is the higher allocation to some sectors and the low allocation to others. Or because i may want to build a good dividend portfolio.

For many reasons, the dividend factor has been useless in the US for decades. If you like dividends, we recommend investing in Hong Kong, where there are many insanely high quality, high dividend stocks.

Thank you all. I will respond when i have a moment but i read the answers and these are a lot of useful information.

I should add that screening and ranking can help you a great deal with figuring out how factors work. Your inventory example is a perfect example. Obviously, you have to account for extraordinary differences between industries when considering inventory. So how does a factor that somehow penalizes high-inventory firms work if you confine it to industry-only comparisons? It's worth exploring. Personally, I find changes in inventory more telling than absolute inventory. It was through exploring with ranking and screening that I came up with a factor that takes the ratio of a company's change in inventory to its total assets and subtracts the subsector median of that ratio. You want to favor companies whose inventory is decreasing relative to other companies in the same industry group. This kind of exploration is a nice way to get an edge in the factor-creation process.

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Hi Lemming78,

I wanted to respond specifically to the practical part of your question. I don't know if what I did is typical, but it reflects how I'd try to make sense of the strength of factors - whether they were fully priced in or predictive in some way. I'd look at universe performance ranks over a large span of time and copying the decile performance results into a spreadsheet for comparison (see attached image).

I randomly grabbed a spreadsheet from several years ago and copied the first few rows in a screenshot as example. In this particular case it looks like I was looking at rates of change/growth rates, measured in various ways, but approach was similar for whatever was being studied. The spreadsheet might have 100s of rows of comparisons ultimately seeing how measures of "growth" might interact with other factors like quality, or momentum, or value, or low vol, big vs. small co, liquid/illiquid, etc. If I recall growth is not a natural winning approach, and alot of models and factors will point away from growth as market often overpays for growth, but I recall looking for ways to integrate growth measures constructively.

Anhow, would look at results by decile as shown, combinations of deciles, the difference or slope difference between high and low deciles, and look at combinations with other factors. It looks like in this case a combination of factors all trying to measure a similar thing ("growth" in this case) is better than finding the best single factor. I found this often to be the case.

Again, I don't know if most people do this, but it's practical example of what I was doing at the time.

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This makes a lot of sense. I guess that you control for companies with declining inventories for the wrong reasons by looking at all other metrics.

Thank you.

The challenge in this case is the time it takes to test various combinations. Probably i would not use this method with real money as that may be prone to overfitting, but i think that what i would be looking for is the common message that all these metrics deliver.