James,
Definitely concerning.
I have to wonder about the article however.
Any comparison to Italy would have to discuss and adjust for the demographics wouldn’t they?
“Italy has the oldest population in Europe, with about 23% of residents 65 or older, according to The New York Times. The median age in the country is 47.3, compared with 38.3 in the United States, the Times reported. Many of Italy’s deaths have been among people in their 80s, and 90s, a population known to be more susceptible to severe complications from COVID-19,”
In fact the median age of deaths in Italy 81 years.
Then this:
“With an infection rate unclear, USA Today’s analysis used that of a mild flu season. It said if everyone in the US who gets infected is hospitalized, that would be 4.7 million patients, which is about 6 per every hospital bed.”
Did I read that assumption correctly? Yep: “everyone in the US who gets infected is hospitalized”
Maybe this is just an error but it has me wondering about the entire article’s numbers/assumption.
If I were a hospital administrator—or even a financial analysts for Wall Street—I think I might be obligated to look at some more articles.
Still it is a serious question. What can/will the US do if there is a need to expand the number of hospital beds? I am not sure I have an answer for this important question.
And while we are at it am I sure we have enough respirators? I suggested the per-capita number of respirators as a number that could be looked at. That probably is something worth looking at but that is far from a detailed analysis.
Obviously one would have to make some determination of how quickly the infection is likely to spread. And those who say the US won’t be doing as well as South Korea, for example, as far as slowing the spread are almost certainly correct, I think.
If this were not such a serious subject (or I actually had more expertise in the area of hospital administration) I would be willing to guess some numbers. Instead, I think I will hope and pray for the best for everyone.
Edit after looking at the graphs closer. Why does Japan have so many sick people (or empty hospital beds)? Or what is the cause for a 3X discrepancy? I think I am missing something.
Regards,
Jim